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D’Andre Swift, Bears
| Start pct. | 29% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Panthers |
| BetMGM line | Bears -4 |
| BetMGM total | 42.5 points |
| BetAlytics projection | 51.4 rush yds, 0.40 TDs |
NFL coaches are used car salesmen with fatter paychecks. All of them. Each week, they sell media members a blood-stained sedan with 150,000 miles and a questionable catalytic converter as though it’s a mint-condition Rolls.
Take the nonsense spouted to reporters by Bears coaches ahead of Chicago’s Week 4 matchup against the Rams. According to the headset wearers, Roschon Johnson was scheduled to earn more touches. His bigger frame and tackle-breaking, north-south style was needed in lieu of Swift’s steady dose of net-negative runs. As a result, fantasy managers added the sophomore back in droves and benched Swift.
Of course, none of it proved to be true, as Swift totaled 165 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 23 touches. Johnson did find the end zone, but he played one more whopping snap (10) compared to the week before at Indianapolis (9).
BeLIEve nothing.
If I’m reading the room correctly, Swift is likely to shake it off again, which probably means Khalil Herbert goes nuts on a dozen touches.
Defensively, Carolina is the definition of “craptastic.” The clawless Panthers rank No. 23 in rush EPA D, surrendering 4.55 yards per carry, 158.5 total yards per game, seven combined touchdowns and THE most fantasy points to RBs. Garfields — the entire team.
If the Bears’ beef up front sets the line of scrimmage like it did in Week 3, Swift’s workhorse reestablishment should continue. Though he ranks well outside the position’s top 25 in YAC per attempt (1.70), total missed tackles forced (7) and yards created per touch (2.95), the matchup is too favorable to ignore. With byes kicking in, fire him up in the FLEX, at a minimum, in 12-team formats.
Fearless Forecast: 14 carries, 61 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 4 receptions, 22 receiving yards, 16.3 fantasy points
Week 5 Bonus Flames
Javonte Williams, Broncos
| Start pct. | 18% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Raiders |
Imploding on the launchpad, Juggernaut Javonte continues to slowly waste away. Touted by some fantasy prognosticators as THE breakout player of the season, he’s sure to underdeliver on the deafening hype. On the surface, he’s averaged a pedestrian 4.0 yards per touch (RB44) and 6.2 fantasy points per game in 0.5 PPR (RB44). With zero touchdowns and only one game of 70 or more total yards, Williams has left investors begging for change. Though outside the top 30 in YAC per attempt (2.71) and total missed tackles forced (5), his RB19 standing in yards created per touch does inspire some turnaround hope. So does an encounter with vapid Vegas. The Raiders rank 26th in rush EPA defense, giving up 5.39 yards per carry, 146.5 total yards per game, four total TDs and the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. Even operating on roughly 50% of the opportunity share and working behind a Broncos offensive line that’s No. 30 in run-blocking efficiency, Williams does enough to salvage some value lost.
Fearless Forecast: 13 carries, 55 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 3 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 14.5 fantasy points
Joe Mixon, Texans
| Start pct. | 22% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Bills |
Shelved by a nagging ankle injury, Mixon, in a potential return to the lineup, is fixin’ to do some damage. In his stead, Cam Akers has proved he couldn’t juke a parked Hyundai in the open field. The eye test and his RB50 standing in yards created per touch offer verification. If Mixon returns to the field, expect the veteran to resume his workhorse role. In Week 1 against the Colts, he played 75.3% of the snaps, accumulating 33 touches, 178 combined yards and a TD. Also, in his two games this season, he’s tallied 3.31 yards after contact per attempt, good for No. 15 among qualifying RBs. The Bills’ soft defensive underbelly has been greatly exposed. Sean McDermott’s front is No. 30 in rush EPA D. Overall, it’s allowed 5.18 yards per carry, 180.3 total yards per game, five touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. In what could be one of the highest-scoring affairs of Week 5, Mixon, if active, mashes.
Fearless Forecast: 22 carries, 88 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 3 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 18.2 fantasy points
Season record: 6-6