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No. 10 Michigan (4-1) at Washington (3-2)
Date: Saturday, October 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Nine months after the teams played for the national championship, Michigan will travel to the Pacific Northwest to face new Big Ten member Washington.
A lot has changed since the Wolverines won 34-13 in Houston to complete a 15-0 season against a 14-1 Huskies team last January. Both programs now have different head coaches, quarterbacks and key contributors.
New Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore was the offensive coordinator and offensive line coach in the title game, but almost every starter on offense is new this season. The unit has struggled in the first five games.
Four days after losing the national title game, Kalen DeBoer left the Huskies for Alabama. Washington replaced DeBoer with Jedd Fisch, who overhauled the roster via the transfer portal, and UW is off to an underwhelming 3-2 start.
The pick — Washington ML (-130, Caesars)
I would consider the Huskies’ start to the season underwhelming because they have played better than their record indicates. I was expecting a down season due to a new coaching staff, a very different looking roster and a tough conference schedule starting with Saturday's game against Michigan.
However, Washington is unlucky to have two losses already, especially if you look closer at its 21-18 loss to Rutgers last Friday. The Huskies held a 521-299 advantage in total yards, missed three fields and committed costly penalties in New Jersey, and two weeks ago, they lost 24-19 to Washington State in a game where they had an edge in the stats.
Washington could easily be 5-0, and it would be priced differently if that were the case.
The Wolverines (4-1) are leaving Ann Arbor for the first time this season. They have beaten USC and Minnesota since Alex Orji was named the starting quarterback, but they have no threat in their passing game with him under center.
The 27-24 victory over USC looked impressive on paper, but that was a game Michigan jumped out to an early lead and played in a positive game script for most of the contest with Orji not having to throw. If Kalel Mullings didn’t break a 63-yard run before the two-minute warning to help set up the go-ahead touchdown, the Wolverines would’ve lost the game.
Last week, Michigan’s offense didn’t do much outside the opening drive and held on for a 27-24 win against Minnesota. If the Wolverines fall behind Saturday, they’ll have trouble catching up on the road.
My takeaway from the Huskies' loss at Rutgers last Friday is I want to bet on them in specific games going forward. I would expect Fisch’s group to improve as the season goes on.
A national TV game at home against an over-ranked brand like Michigan is the ideal time to buy Washington.
Season record: 7-7, -0.43 units