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No. 21 Oklahoma (3-1) at Auburn (2-2)
Date: Saturday, September 28
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
It’s time once again to pick on the Auburn Tigers, a team that’s more cooked than the Chicago Bears’ offensive line.
My belief in Hugh Freeze and company is razor thin, so let’s focus on a team trying to rebound after a tough loss.
The pick — Oklahoma ML (-125, DraftKings)
The Sooners got dominated in front of Chris Fowler, the world and even Kirk Herbstreit’s dog, Ben, in last Saturday’s 25-15 home loss to Tennessee. They were beaten much worse by Josh Heupel’s Volunteers than the final score indicated. It was such a drubbing that Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables pulled starting quarterback Jackson Arnold.
Arnold’s replacement, dual-threat freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., actually impressed. He threw for 132 yards and a touchdown, and most importantly, didn’t turn the ball over.
As much as I want to feel comfortable backing the Sooners because of the QB change, this money-line play is more of a fade against Auburn than a belief in Oklahoma. The Tigers are simply, for lack of a better term, stinky.
In all the categories that you’d want a team to excel in when facing a freshman QB, Auburn is struggling. The Tigers are 109th in the nation in opponent EPA per rush and 91st in opponent EPA per dropback. Their defensive line won’t give Hawkins and the Sooners run game much trouble, and Hawkins’ dual-threat abilities may add an extra dimension to an offense that was searching for more life.
Auburn’s offense doesn’t inspire much confidence either, ranking 109th in the country in EPA per rush and 71st in EPA per dropback. Even the Tigers’ average starting field position is ranked 79th. They can’t even give themselves an advantage before moving the ball.
This should be a get-right game for an Oklahoma team that’s better than what it showed last week against Tennessee. The Sooners are still dealing with injuries while having to go on the road in the SEC with a new QB. All the signs should point toward a loss, but Auburn is just bad enough that none of those factors should come into play.
Venables gets his team ready for a bounce-back game, and with a fresh QB, OU takes the W in Auburn.
Season record: 8-8, -0.32 units