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No. 11 USC (2-0) at No. 18 Michigan (2-1)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Saturday marks a historic day for the USC football program as it plays its first-ever Big Ten game. The conference made sure to provide a big stage for the debut of the Trojans, who will face defending national champion Michigan in the “The Big House” in Ann Arbor.
Over the summer, many sportsbooks included this matchup in their “Game of the Year” selections and listed the Wolverines as a consensus double-digit favorite. After the teams played a combined five games, a massive swing in the point spread has occurred with USC now being a 5 1/2-point favorite.
The two-touchdown-plus adjustment to the point spread is partly because of the Trojans’ 2-0 start that includes a 27-20 upset of then-No. 13 LSU in Las Vegas and a 48-0 shutout of Utah State six days later. Quarterback Miller Moss has effectively run Lincoln Riley’s offense since last December’s Holiday Bowl victory, and the USC defense has massively improved under new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
Michigan also has been downgraded greatly after two pedestrian wins over Fresno State and Arkansas State with a 31-12 loss to then-No. 3 Texas sandwiched in between. The Wolverines have lacked an identity on offense, and their defense has taken a step back in production from last season.
I personally am not going to bet on the Trojans because I feel like I would be paying top of the market for them, but I have another angle on this game.
The pick — UNDER 44 total points (-110, BetMGM)
The big news this week was Michigan naming Alex Orji as its starting QB after Davis Warren got the nod for the first three games. Orji is known for his running ability, and head coach Sherrone Moore’s decision indicates that the Wolverines will employ a rush-heavy attack. That type of offense typically is helpful for a game to go under the total because the clock will keep running. It’ll leave the USC offense on the sidelines, too.
I also have some questions about Moss in his first road start in front of over 100,000 people against a defense that has future NFL players. Moss was impressive in high-leverage situations against LSU, but that’s an average defense at best after the Tigers’ performance in last week’s 36-33 win at South Carolina.
I’m also going to bet the first-half under because Michigan could start slow offensively with a different scheme. And, again, I have slight concerns about Moss being comfortable in an unfamiliar situation.
Season record: 6-4, +1.53 units