SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
Baylor (2-1) at Colorado (2-1)
Date: Saturday, September 21
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
We have different opinions on one of the marquee TV games on Saturday, so here is our first head-to-head battle.
Nate’s pick — Baylor ML (+105, BetMGM)
Colorado is not a good football team. And the Buffaloes are overrated. They have two star players in quarterback Shedeur Sanders and two-way sensation Travis Hunter, who has shown elite skills as a wide receiver and cornerback, but CU has a lot of flaws with Deion Sanders’ coaching staff and in the trenches.
Colorado's offense is coordinated by Pat Shurmur, who wasn't very impressive in the NFL. The offensive line struggles to block for Sanders, and the offense is one-dimensional because it lacks a ground game.
I also don’t believe in the Buffaloes defense, even after it held Colorado State to nine points in Week 3, because I don’t think highly of the Rams.
Baylor head coach Dave Aranda could really use this win to help save his job. He is a great defensive mind who will be relishing the opportunity to pressure Shedeur Sanders and drop enough players in coverage with no rushing threat to worry about.
Last week, Baylor started Sawyer Robertson at QB in place of Toledo transfer Dequan Finn, who was injured. Robertson played well against Air Force and has another opportunity to excel against Colorado’s underwhelming defense.
Ben’s Pick — Colorado ML (-114, FanDuel)
This bet is coming from someone who already has the Buffs’ win total “under' for the season. My reasoning is simple: Colorado has success against teams with poor defenses.
Colorado State, despite playing in what was essentially its Super Bowl, still couldn’t stop the Buffaloes offense with its 123rd-ranked defense in success rate. Colorado now faces a similarly defensively deficient team in Baylor.
Dave Aranda simply hasn’t been able to get the Bears defense going, and the stats show it. The team ranks 88th in EPA per dropback, 92nd in sacks per game and 64th in EPA per rush. Also, it only has 11 tackles for loss on the season (117th in the country).
With a sub-par CU offensive line not being pressured, Shedeur Sanders should get the time in the pocket to make throws.
Two weeks ago, Baylor’s defense got exposed by a good Utah offense as QB Cam Rising threw two touchdowns in the Utes' 23-point first half. Against FCS Tarleton State and Air Force, the Bears held the visitors to a total of eight combined passes.
With the Buffaloes back at home against an unproven pass defense, the move here is the Colorado money line.
Nate’s season record: 6-4, +1.53 units
Ben’s season record: 6-6, -0.30 units