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No. 1 Georgia (2-0) at Kentucky (1-1)
Date: Saturday, September 14
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
The pick — Georgia -13.5 first half (-115, DraftKings)
The top-ranked Bulldogs hit the road for their first true away game in Lexington. The teams are very familiar with each other because of their yearly battles as former SEC East members. Also, Kentucky QB Brock Vandagriff is a transfer from Georgia.
The Bulldogs ballooned to a 24-point favorite after Kentucky’s shocking 31-6 loss to South Carolina despite being favored by 9 1/2 points. Vandagriff was benched after completing three of 10 attempts for just 30 yards.
I want to bet on Georgia because its defense and coaching staff have a huge edge preparing for a QB who was with the program for three seasons. Also, Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart is one of the best defensive minds in college football and arguably has the country’s most talented defense, which will make it a long night for Vandagriff.
Georgia has a loaded offense led by quarterback Carson Beck, who beat out Vandagriff for the starting job before last season. I expect the Bulldogs offense to get out to an early lead and play how it did in the second half of the team’s 34-3 season-opening win over Clemson.
I strongly prefer betting the first half with Georgia instead of the full game because Kentucky’s Mark Stoops is a coach who knows the point spread. At times, we’ve seen him play to cover.
The best example was when Kentucky was a 21 1/2-point underdog to the Bulldogs in 2021. On the final drive while trailing 30-7, the Wildcats went on a 22-play, 75-yard drive that took over 11 minutes and resulted in a touchdown to cut the lead to 30-13 and score a cover. Stoops showed no urgency and seemingly wanted to get within the number to appease the boosters.
There’s a threat of Kentucky wanting to cover the point spread late if the game is out of reach. Because of that, I want to eliminate the possibility and just bet on Georgia to cover in the first half.
Season record: 6-2, +3.76 units