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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
Prop play: David Montgomery anytime touchdown (-115, BetMGM)
When your nickname is #MandatoryMontgomery, backing an anytime TD prop is practically a must. As Lions play-by-play announcer Dan Miller commented on Friday’s “BetMGM Tonight,” the workload separation between Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs may only slightly tighten from the 55-45 split witnessed last season. Miller also said that the coaching staff loves the early-down grinder in red-zone situations.
As evidenced by his 15 TDs in 17 games in 2023, Montgomery possesses a bloodhound nose for the end zone. In total, he tallied the fifth-most red-zone touches (53) of any RB last year. Running behind arguably the league’s best offensive line against a Rams defense ranked eighth-worst overall by ESPN’s Mike Clay, Monty smashes his way for six. Aaron Donald logging shuffleboard sessions at the Sunny Acres Retirement Center only increases the Lions RB’s odds.
Also, BetAlytics gives Montgomery a 54.6% TD probability, the sixth-highest chance of any Week 1 player. Sexy.
Prop season record: 1-1, -0.10 units.
SGP: Matthew Stafford 225+ passing yards, Kyren Williams 1+ receptions, Amon-Ra St. Brown 6+ receptions, Lions ML (+150, BetMGM)
Matthew Stafford 225+ passing yards. Detroit’s former franchise face should display quite the active arm in his return to the Motor City. Finishing at No. 25 in dropback EPA D last season, the Lions front office prioritized upgrading its defensive backfield. The secondary has a chance to be good — damn good — but is relatively green, so patience may be required. Stafford will unlikely replicate the 367 yards tossed against Detroit in the playoffs last January, but with a healthy Cooper Kupp and uninhibited Puka Nacua as primary weapons, the Rams QB won’t lay an ostrich-sized egg either. In 2023, Stafford threw for at least 225 yards in 12 of 15 total games. His No. 13 or better standing in total air yards, yards per attempt (7.6), deep-ball completion percentage, pass attempts per game (34.7) and QBR offer additional encouragement.
Kyren Williams 1+ reception. Put down the bottle of bleach, Kyren fantasy investors. His deployment as primary punt returner isn’t a Mortal Kombat “FINISH HIM” final move. Sure, Blake Corum will likely get 8-12 touches each game as a rotational back, but the 2023 breakout sensation won’t be banished to the backseat. Last season, Williams averaged a hefty 22.4 routes and ran out on passing downs 61.3% of the time. Admittedly, his 66.7% catch rate (RB37) was unattractive, but he squeezed at least one catch in 10 of 13 games, including his playoff visit to Detroit. One stinkin’ swing pass — that’s all I need.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 6+ receptions. The Sun God is one the game’s divine pass catchers. His route-running precision and sticky fingers are simply angelic. Though checking in at a mediocre No. 23 in catchable target rate last year, St. Brown snatched 119 receptions, winning often in contested catch situations. Most importantly, the opportunities presented were borderline absurd. He registered 30.2% of the team target share, averaging 10.3 Jared Goff looks per game. In 16 of 19 contests — the seven playoff catches against the Rams included — St. Brown grabbed at least six passes. Slated to face slot cornerback Cobie Durant most often, he should rack the receptions. In 2023, the Rams DB allowed a 61.9 catch percentage and 98.9 passer rating to assignments. Build a shrine to Detroit’s Saint.
Lions ML. Party with Eminem. Yep, “Lose Yourself” by backing the Lions. Enough with the unnecessary puns. The home team should leave the Ford Field patrons feeling warm and fuzzy. The Rams, who nearly rained on Detroit’s playoff parade in a 24-23 jloss, are sure to be competitive in the opener, but the Lions are more balanced compared to last year’s title contender. ESPN’s Clay rates the offense AND defense as top-10 units heading into the regular season. If Detroit emerges victorious, we’re bound to eat good in the neighborhood. Right, Dan Campbell?
SGP season record: 0-2, -2.00 units.