The 2024 college football season kicks this Saturday. Nate Jacobson and Ben Wittenstein preview the major conferences with their predictions and best bets.
Which team is the best bet to go OVER its regular-season win total?
Ben’s pick — Vanderbilt OVER 3 wins (-130, Caesars)
Yep. Just … yep.
I don’t have a clever explanation for this pick. I just like it. Vanderbilt is coming off what might be its worst season in a while, but I believe the Commodores will have some favorable outcomes this year.
The schedule offers three likely wins: Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State. That provides a push. Additionally, Vandy has potential wins in its season opener against Virginia Tech or in games against South Carolina or even Auburn — all at home.
Vanderbilt has also hired a new offensive coordinator from New Mexico State in Tim Beck, who brought dynamic QB Diego Pavia. Pavia’s “me against the world” attitude could give the team an edge, especially after a disappointing 2023 season in which the Commodores averaged just 23 points per game.
On defense, Vandy has key returners in the middle and solid performers in the secondary from returning players and transfers from bigger schools.
This might be my least exciting pick ever, but with at least three guaranteed wins and three more games that are toss-ups, I’m confident in taking the over on three wins for Vanderbilt.
Nate’s pick — Texas A&M OVER 8.5 wins (-120, DraftKings)
Texas A&M has been one of the most disappointing teams in college football over the last several years. The Aggies recruited at an extremely high level under head coach Jimbo Fisher, but a 19-15 regular-season record from 2021 to 2023 led to Fisher’s firing with two games remaining last year.
Fisher’s offensive scheme became outdated, and he surrounded himself with assistant coaches who had character concerns at previous jobs. That was a recipe for disaster at a school with one of the most passionate fan bases in the country.
Now, Texas A&M has a better football coach in Mike Elko, who did wonders for Fisher when he was the defensive coordinator in College Station from 2018 to 2021. Elko returns to town after leading Duke to back-to-back bowl seasons, and he convinced Kansas State offensive coordinator Collin Klein to leave his alma mater to join him.
The schedule is manageable for SEC standards. Texas A&M gets Notre Dame in one of the highlight games of Week 1, and I already placed a bet on the Aggies for their opener after the season-ending injury to Fighting Irish left tackle Charles Jagusah, who was projected to replace Joe Alt, the fifth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The other toughest games are against Missouri, LSU and Texas, but all three will be played at home. I expect Elko to get the most out of a roster like he did at Duke, but this time he is working with much better talent.
Which team is the best bet to go UNDER its regular-season win total?
Ben’s pick — Missouri UNDER 9.5 wins (-140, BetMGM)
I apologize to my good friend and column mate Nate Jacobson for this pick, but Missouri will need a lot to go right to reach 10 wins.
The Tigers do have an easier schedule, avoiding teams like Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss. However, they still face tough road games against Texas A&M and Alabama, and those are likely losses. Plus, losing five NFL Draft picks on defense could result in more defeats due to defensive struggles.
While no one is doubting the Missouri’s offense, the challenging end-of-season games — at home against Oklahoma and two difficult road trips to South Carolina and Mississippi State — make an eight- or nine-win season seem much more probable than hitting the 10-win mark.
Nate’s pick — Auburn UNDER 7.5 wins (-140, DraftKings)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn eventually became a contender in the expanded College Football Playoff under Hugh Freeze. The Tigers have been on fire with high school recruiting this summer and currently have the No. 5 class for 2025.
Say what you want about Freeze as a person, but he’s very good at bringing in talent. And he is at a school with boosters who are willing to support it financially. However, all that buzz for Auburn is about the future and has nothing to do with the 2024 roster.
I’m not a big believer in QB Payton Thorne and was surprised Freeze didn’t go to the transfer portal to upgrade that position. Thorne was serviceable when he started at Michigan State in 2021 and 2022, but he also had RB Kenneth Walker, WR Jayden Reed and WR Keon Coleman as his weapons. All were eventual NFL second-round picks.
The Tigers have improved at the skill positions, but they are a year away from having an offense with difference makers. Freeze hired a new defensive coordinator in D.J. Durkin, whose Texas A&M defense underachieved while working under Jimbo Fisher. I’m not expecting much different returns from Durkin’s Auburn defense this season.
Keep the Tigers in mind as a team to buy in 2025, but this year is looking more like 6-6 or 7-5 for Auburn.