The weaker half of the Euro 2024 knockout bracket has resulted in a Wednesday semifinal between the Netherlands and England in Dortmund.
On paper, this would seem like a really good match. The two countries have produced many world-class players in the history of the sport and are usually threats to contend in major tournaments. However, I’m not very high on how either of these teams have played over the last several weeks.
England scored only two goals in a group that featured Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia. They needed a last-gasp equalizer to force extra time and ultimately get past Slovakia and needed another comeback to eventually beat Switzerland on penalties in last Saturday’s quarterfinal.
The Netherlands have had some good fortune to get this far in the tournament. They were in control to finish in the top two of their group, but they lost to Austria in the their group-stage finale and dropped to third place, which was still good enough to advance to the round of 16.
Based on how the bracket broke, the Netherlands actually benefited from finishing third because they got to play surprise Group E winner Romania in the round of 16 and then Turkey in the quarterfinals. I don’t put much stock in the Dutch’s 3-0 win over Romania, as two of their goals were scored in the last 10 minutes. They also needed two late goals to come back and beat Turkey last Saturday in Berlin.
The pick — Netherlands-England draw in regular time (+180, BetMGM)
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I’ve laid out my concerns for both teams. Based on how they have played and how I expect both managers to approach this high-pressure situation, I can only look at the draw here. I would slightly favor England to advance, but that’s in line with the betting market where the Three Lions are a small favorite to qualify for the next round.
I can see England having most of the possession in this game because their midfield has an edge over what the Oranje have to offer in the center of the pitch. However, England have had problems creating scoring chances. I don’t think they’ll find the creativity against a Netherlands back line that features Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk and Manchester City’s Nathan Ake. Both defenders are very familiar with most of England’s attacking options.
The Netherlands have another Liverpool star in Cody Gakpo, who is one of four players leading the tournament with three goals. Gakpo is the current favorite to win the Golden Boot because the other three top scorers are on teams already eliminated from the competition.
I just don’t see Gakpo or the other Dutch attackers having many high-danger chances of their own against England’s three center-back system, which they adopted for the Switzerland match. A scoreless draw or 1-1 deadlock after 90 minutes is the most likely outcome, so I like the draw at the current price that is widely available at most sportsbooks.
Euros record: 5-4-1, +5.65 units