The pick — Mavericks-Celtics second quarter UNDER 53.5 points (-108, FanDuel)
- FanDuel offer: Bet $5 and get $200 in Bonus Bets
I’ve never felt more like Leonardo DiCaprio in “Shutter Island” than I do with this second-quarter total.
I can’t possibly be the crazy person here, can I? Let me explain.
So far in the NBA Finals, this total has gone under the proposed number in every single game. In Game 1, the second-quarter total was 48 points. In Game 2, it was 52. In Game 3, it was 40. In Game 4, it was 41.
Now, with Monday’s Game 5 holding the series’ lowest full-game total at 209.5 points, the second-quarter number still remains at 53.5. That is 8.25 points lower than the Finals’ second-quarter total average of 45.25.
If the market is expecting a lower-scoring game, why is that second-quarter total almost the same as Games 1 through 4? It’s baffling.
The second quarter is also the period where star players get most of their rest. Typically, we’ll see them play anywhere between 10.5 to 12 minutes per period in the Finals. But in the second frame, Jaylen Brown is averaging 8.5 minutes, Jrue Holiday is at 8.9 minutes, and even Jayson Tatum is at 10.2 minutes.
Less star time means less scoring and more defensive adjustments after the first quarter.
I don’t fully understand this line, but I’m jumping all over it and hoping that, unlike Leo — spoiler alert — I don’t need a lobotomy at the end of this game.
NBA postseason record: 11-12, -1.26 units