Because I love nothing more than giving my hard-earned cash to sportsbooks everywhere, I have not one but two bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Game spread — Mavericks +6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
You know I love the Mavs as underdogs, and I’ll be damned if I go against my principles now.
Dallas, as a road dog, covers the spread 56% of the time, and in the playoffs, it has been covering games at a 64.7% clip — best in the league. To me, the value lies in this Mavs team, which has shown time and time again to be undervalued by the market.
The Mavericks have the best player (Luka Doncic) and the best coach (Jason Kidd) in the series, and we can get them as semi-heavy dogs? Yes, please.
While the return of Kristaps Porzingis is widely considered a positive for Boston, it won’t be in Game 1. The Celtics will have to figure out how to play with KP again after his 10-game absence, and there’s little chance he plays his usual 30-plus minutes in his first game back. Having to change your rotation that much in the Finals is tough for any team.
The Mavs are spectacular on offense. They’ll have the defensive edge as well. Over its last five games, Dallas has a better defensive rating than Boston (112.1 to 114.4). This line should be lower and might get to 5.5 by tipoff.
It’s Dallas or die for me in Game 1, so let’s put on that cowboy hat and ride off into the sunset.
First-half total — OVER 110.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
Much like the “Fast and Furious” franchise, the first half of Game 1 will be fast and … incandescent.
The Mavericks and Celtics like to get out and run to begin games. Both own top-eight offensive ratings in the first half of playoff games, and over their last 10 contests, both hold top-eight pace of play numbers in the first half. First-half playoff scoring averages also favor the over, with Boston at 59.4 points and Dallas at 52.9.
Typically, teams use series openers to figure out what defensive adjustments to make. As a result, the offense can flow a bit more freely early on. I’m going to ride with the hot first-half trend for both squads and hopefully cash a bet in the first 24 minutes.
NBA postseason record: 9-8, +0.43 units