Yes, your interest-free investment won’t pay off for months, but the wait could be worth it. With various sportsbooks already posting season-long player props, the perceived values demand your attention and implore this scribe's pen to scribble. Throughout the summer, I'll serve the football masses with occasional sprinkles. Fade or follow — that's up to you!
The pick — Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 325.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars)
- Caesars offer: Get your first bet back!
Pay attention to the smoke signals, young gumshoe.
Equivalent to a slow burn Hollywood thriller (see almost every Christopher Nolan movie), early June on the NFL calendar always presents under-publicized clues about a player's production potential. Place your ear to the ground, listen to the underground churnings and assess with historical data. Unearthed are values in the player props market.
Take for instance, Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit’s flashy sophomore back — who is flying off fantasy Best Ball boards on average in Round 2 of 12-team exercises (15.74 ADP) and is currently ranked RB8 by yours truly among 0.5 PPR virtual game rushers — could experience an uptick in pass game usage by extending branches on the route tree.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Lions running backs coach Scottie Montgomery presented important supportive evidence Friday when he said the team envisions taking Gibbs “next level” as a receiver by employing him downfield, out of the slot and on “intermediate stuff.”
Yes, your pants just randomly dissolved.
Gibbs will continue to work in concert with David Montgomery this season. (Hey, it’s MANDATORY!) Gibbs’ 51.2% opportunity share in 2023 may only increase slightly in 2024. However, his added receiving assignments likely mean he’ll cross 20.0 routes per game (18.3 last year). Primarily deployed as a check-down catcher in his rookie campaign, a spike in yards per route run (1.15, RB23 in 2023) and yards per reception (6.1, RB30) appears imminent.
The presumed increased usage and his impressive open-field wiggle — Gibbs ranked top-18 in YAC/attempt and total missed tackles last season, per Pro Football Focus — sound the OVER alarm on the prop above.
Detroit’s likely top-10 defense somewhat dampens the excitement. However, with projections by various pundits that he will land between 350-425 receiving yards, the young Lion should roar. At a minimum, this fearless forecaster believes Gibbs tallies 400 receiving yards this fall.
Gobble up the breadcrumbs, gamer.