If you’re looking for insights on Deontay Wilder vs. Zhilei Zhang, here are my two cents: The fan-friendly heavyweight matchup that’s headlining Saturday’s 5 vs. 5 showcase in Saudi Arabia will not go the full 12 rounds, not after Wilder weighed nearly 70 pounds lighter than Zhang.
Either the slimmed-down Wilder will dominate with speed, stamina and renewed boxing skills. Or Zhang will deliver a devastating knockout of a weakened fighter who’s well past his prime.
However, Wilder-Zhang isn’t on my list of weekend boxing wagers. Neither is Daniel Dubois vs. Filip Hrgovic, the other heavyweight clash in Riyadh.
Why? Because the one-punch knockout potential in those fights makes them — while entertaining — too difficult to place a sensible bet. In my opinion, they’re dice rolls.
Fortunately, the team competition between Frank Warren’s Queensbury Promotions and Eddie Hearn’s Matchroom Boxing features plenty of other betting opportunities.
Here are my picks for Saturday’s fight fest at the Kingdom Arena.
Method of victory — Dmitry Bivol to win by points or decision vs. Malik Zinad (+110, FanDuel)
Bivol (22-0, 11 KOs) is a heavy favorite against the little-known Zinad (22-0, 16 KOs), the replacement for the injured Artur Beterbiev in what would’ve been the latest undisputed title fight at light heavyweight. The only question is how Bivol (-2500 at FanDuel) will defeat Zinad (+1420) — by stoppage or by decision? (At DraftKings, the exact fight outcome props for TKO and unanimous decision are both listed at +125.)
It wouldn’t be surprising if the disappointment of not facing Beterbiev has Bivol boxing less than his best. Also, his last nine fights have all been unanimous decision victories. That streak will be extended to 10 when the Russian fights from distance and outboxes Zinad.
Two-leg: Hamzah Sheeraz ML vs. Austin Williams, Craig Richards ML vs. Willy Hutchinson (+134, BetMGM and DraftKings)
As mentioned above, the 5 vs. 5 heavyweight matchups are too risky for my money. The bouts at middleweight (Sheeraz vs. Williams) and light heavyweight (Richards vs. Hutchinson) are safer and more profitable plays when parlayed, although they are by no means one-sided certainties.
Sheeraz (19-0, 15 KOs) is a -225 favorite against Williams (16-0, 11 KOs), while Richards (18-3, 11 KOs) is a -160 favorite against Hutchinson (17-1, 13 KOs).
Fight result 3-way — Raymond Ford to win vs. Nick Ball (-150, BetMGM)
This WBA featherweight title fight might end up being the night’s best scrap.
Ball (19-0, 11 KOs), who at 5-foot-2 is five inches shorter than Ford, will press the action hoping to turn the bout into a brawl. Ford (15-0, 8 KOs), who needed a dramatic last-second TKO of Otabek Kholmatov to win the WBA belt, throws hard and accurate shots and has likely learned from his close-call against Kholmatov to not wait so late to force the action. He should stay busy to outpoint — or stop — Ball.
Boxing record: 11-7, +0.33 units