Here are my favorite prop bets for this week's PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky.
Joaquin Niemann, top South American finisher (-175, DraftKings and FanDuel)
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I know betting something at -175 isn’t appealing to many bettors, but I believe there is value in this prop. A quartet of South Americans make up this market — Niemann (Chile), Emiliano Grillo (Argentina), Alejandro Tosti (Argentina) and Camilo Villegas (Colombia).
Niemann is a player I considered betting on outright at +3500 this week. The Chilean was one of my favorite players to bet on when he was on the PGA Tour before he defected to LIV in the late summer of 2022. Niemann excels with his driving distance, which is a requirement to perform well at Valhalla.
His wins at the Australian Open, LIV Mayakoba and LIV Jeddah in the last six months earned him a special invitation to the PGA Championship. He wouldn’t have qualified otherwise due to results in LIV events not counting towards official golf world ranking points.
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Niemann, who isn’t guaranteed to play in majors going forward, should have extra motivation this week. As for the opposition in the prop, I don’t think highly of the three players this week.
Grillo is someone I occasionally bet on for shorter courses on the PGA Tour, but I don’t want part of him at a 7,600-yard track. Tosti finished second at the Houston Open in March but is playing in his first major championship. Villegas has been in poor form since a win late in 2023.
I wouldn’t be surprised if all three missed the cut and this bet is paid out before the weekend.
Hideki Matsuyama, top Japanese finisher (+110, DraftKings and FanDuel)
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When I was going through props bets for the tournament, I was surprised to see the price on this one. Matsuyama to finish better than Keita Nakajima, Ryo Hisatsune and Takumi Kanaya at around even odds seems too good to be true.
The reason for this price is Matsuyama hasn’t played since the Masters and he withdrew right before hitting his opening tee shot at the Wells Fargo Championship with back tightness last Thursday. If he ends up teeing up this week, I’m going to trust Matsuyama’s withdrawal as a precaution to get ready for this week.
None of the three other golfers inspire me, so it’s worth betting Matsuyama at a friendly price and hope the back holds up.
Corey Conners, top Canadian finisher (+265, ESPN BET)
This is an exciting market made up of six players, including two 2024 tournament winners in Nick Taylor and Taylor Pendrith.
I’m going with Conners, and I’m still considering an outright bet on him at prices north of 100/1. He finished tied for 13th at Wells Fargo last week and ranked second in the field in strokes gained approach. He also gained strokes off the tee but struggled with his putter.
Conners played well at last year’s PGA Championship with a tied-for-12th finish. He was one shot off the lead after the first round and played in the second-to-last pairing in Sunday’s final round before shooting a 75 to drop him down the leaderboard. That experience should help him this week to not be intimidated by a major championship setup, and his ball striking success last week leads to being invested on the Ontario native.