The pick — SGP: Jimmy Butler UNDER 6.5 assists, Joel Embiid UNDER 6.5 assists (+105, BetMGM)
BetMGM offers:
Chasing overs in the SGP market is a common betting tendency. Many subscribe to wagering on overs under any circumstances. Poll a wide swath of casual bettors, and the majority will surely argue that rooting for statistical plateaus is far more appealing than sweating out the opposite.
However, there’s hydration to be had for those who drink from a glass half empty.
Heat vs. 76ers feels like a rock fight. And we’re not talking pebbles. We’re talking the “Raiders of the Lost Ark” rolling boulder variety.
Both teams take pride in playing staunch defense. On the season, each ranks inside the top 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency, surrendering a combined 1.12 points per possession and just under 110 points per game.
Come to Braddy, assist unders.
[ More NBA: Hawks vs. Bulls player props ]
Butler only encountered the Sixers once in the regular season, totaling five assists against them on April 4. Hitting the under six times in his last nine games, he’s likely to tuck below seven dimes against a Philadelphia defense that’s ranked No. 11 in fewest assists allowed per game over the last 15 contests.
As for Embiid, OVER zealots will reference his 15 total assists in his last two games as the primary reason to support him in the category. However, he only registered three in that column against Miami on April 4. Also of note: Embiid has averaged 5.2 assists or fewer in three straight months, and the Heat are No. 7 in fewest assists allowed to opponents (25.3 per game) over their last 10 games.
Yeah but the “Superstar narrative, Evans!” It’s understandable and oftentimes justifiable. However, in a back-alley brawl that may not reach the 100s, the above SGP is placed with confidence.
NBA postseason record: 0-2, -2.00 units