Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
The pick — SGP: Purdue ML, UNDER 158.5 (+100, MGM)
Near the battleground that made William Henry Harrison famous — a victorious skirmish against the Prophet and his Shawnee warriors which helped propel the then-general to the Oval Office years later — “Tippecanoe and Purdue too” applies.
Unlike the shortest-tenured U.S. President in history — Harrison caught a diarrhea-debilitating illness after being caught in a cold January rain without a proper coat and died 31 days after his inauguration in 1841 — the Boilermakers, different from last season, haven’t crapped the bed in the NCAA Tournament.
This month, Purdue Pete has reached full steam. Playing at a very balanced level, Matt Painter’s crew is No. 25 in effective field-goal percentage offense and No. 43 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Also, the Boilers are dominating the arc, shooting 44.4% from distance while only allowing 27.9% on triples in their last eight games.
What is most impressive is the evolution of Zach Edey’s game. Yes, the Shire horse continues to trample the competition with near-proximity baby hooks on offense and numerous shot deflections on defense, but it’s his improvement in reading, recognizing and passing out of double/triple-teams that should have NBA scouts’ attention. Edey’s wise decision making has given Fletcher Loyer, Braden Smith, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones several uncontested three-point looks.
Mason Gillis knocks it down 3️⃣#MarchMadness @BoilerBall pic.twitter.com/qVO4gIELpd
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 29, 2024
Tennessee has steadily climbed Rocky Top, and its signature lockdown defense has been the primary reason. Since March 1, the Volunteers rank No. 8 in adjusted defensive efficiency, yielding only 0.895 points per possession, 47.7% shooting from two and 32.6% from three. Displaying opportunistic mitts, they’ve generated a turnover on 17.7% of opponent possessions.
Dalton Knecht is blazing his way to a 10-year NBA career. He has averaged 21.7 points per game in this NCAA Tournament. However, scoring inconsistencies from the rest of the flock are a concern. This month, Tennessee is a dreadful No. 304 in effective field-goal percentage offense, netting 43.2% from two (!!!) and 32.6% from three. Yikes.
Purdue played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. With a veteran team and the most uniquely skilled player in the collegiate game, the Boilers will take the next step Sunday and advance to the Final Four.
Yep, Painter, who owns a notorious tournament track record, is about to exorcise some demons. Sorry Smokey, the Boilers are simply better rounded.
All hail the Midwest Region's Commander in Chief!
Season record: 29-31, +3.45 units