Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — Illinois +8.5 vs. UConn (-110, MGM)
A couple of years back while spewing nonsense through the mic on my now-defunct SiriusXM show, my broadcast partner and real-life bosom buddy, Brandon Funston, pitched an impromptu deep-thinking question live on air: “If you could choose one team to win a title from your fan portfolio, which one would it be?”
With a response quicker than Caitlin Clark’s hair trigger, the answer from this Champaign-raised kid and local university graduate was “Illinois men’s basketball.”
The Chicago Cubs, who were No. 2 on the personal championship list, actually won it all in 2016, a joyous occasion that brought cascading tears to this lovable loser’s eyes. However, with the Illini only three wins away from the ultimate dream coming true in the NCAA Tournament, internal emotions are running the gauntlet. Nerves are high. Focus is unwavering. And the tequila bottles are fully stocked.
There’s just one rather significant issue.
The mighty Connecticut Huskies stand, very tall mind you, in the way.
Wearing a cloak of invincibility over the past several weeks, Danny Hurley’s squad looks unbeatable. With zero weaknesses in the profile, UConn is No. 1 overall in BartTorvik’s metrics this month, ranking No. 20 in effective field-goal percentage offense and No. 10 in effective field-goal percentage defense.
No matter how you slice it, the Huskies are the immovable force AND the unstoppable object. With ample experience from last year’s NCAA title team, a monster in the middle (Donovan Clingan), a tremendous floor general (Tristen Newton), a creative bucket-getter (Stephon Castle) and two sharpshooters that would give Annie Oakley a run for her money (Alex Karaban and Cam Spencer), UConn is undoubtedly the favorite in Saturday’s East Region final in Boston.
But as someone somewhere once said, “To be the best, you have to beat the best.”
Statistically speaking, Illinois is up to the task.
— Live on the Line (@LiveontheLine) March 29, 2024
Terrence Shannon has become that dude, displaying a Carmelo Anthony-like superiority while averaging 28.3 points per game over the Illini’s stirring tournament run. Co-stars Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins have been nothing short of sensational. And Luke Goode, Dain Dainja and Quincy Guerrier have delivered in critical spots. As a unit, Illinois is No. 10 overall in BartTorvik since March 1, slotting No. 4 in adjusted offensive efficiency and pouring in a molten 1.304 points per possession.
Yes, UConn, a certifiable steamroller, is flattening everyone in its path. However, as witnessed in the Huskies’ three regular-season losses (Kansas, Seton Hall and Creighton), their supposed impenetrable armor has a weak point — defending the three. The Jayhawks, Pirates and Bluejays shot a combined 52% (26 for 50) from beyond the arc in those takedowns.
With their plus length, athleticism and Shannon’s closeout abilities, the Illini are unlikely to get smacked. Also worth noting: They faced a similarly constructed team in Purdue twice in the regular season, losing both matchups by a total of 11 points.
If the I-L-L can reach the magic number of 10 or more made triples, it, as the school’s nickname would suggest, will have a fighting chance. Speed up UConn (don’t let the defense set with Clingan in the post) and play a B- brand of defense, and it’s conceivable a shirtless Brad Underwood again douses his exuberant club in holy water.
Bring on the dragon boxers. Most importantly, bring me joy, Illinois.
Season record: 30-32, +3.50 units