With the Sweet 16 field set, it’s time to blow out the candles, gift ourselves handsome plus-money futures and celebrate the action. What lookahead markets has this Molly Ringwald’s undivided attention? Read my play in the East Region below.
The pick: Illinis to win the East Region (+700, DraftKings)
Tucked away in the northwest corner of Illinois resides the state’s tallest natural formation. At an oxygen-depriving 1,235 feet stands the Charles Mound. Yep, the landscape is flatter than this fortysomething’s jumper.
At 1,451 feet, the Willis Tower in Chicago is technically the Land of Lincoln’s overall top point. However, a certain school located downstate in Champaign is on the verge of establishing a new pinnacle.
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The Illini are two wins away from soaking up the Sonoran Desert sun and reaching their first Final Four since Dee Brown and company achieved the feat in 2005.
Orange and Blue admittedly flow through every part of this taco-carved bod. With a +700 Final Four ticket in the portfolio, this somewhat-unbiased, Illinois-B.A.-in-History holder is doubling down, at the same attractive odds no less.
Outside of nobody, Brad Underwood’s bunch owns the best offense among remaining NCAA Tournament teams. This month, the Illini have notched an astronomical 1.307 points per possession, shooting 55.9% from two and 37.0% from three. They’ve also been spurred by getting buckets on second chances, registering an offensive rebound on 35.1% of their possessions in their last eight games.
Illinois’ disruptive length triggers headaches for glass-weak teams. Though many have questioned the Illini’s upside due to a lack of a true point guard, they rank a respectable No. 79 in turnover percentage offense in March.
Illinois begs to differ.
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) March 24, 2024
It’s a broken record, but the biggest question with Illinois is its willingness to defend. When staying connected and slapping the floor, the Illini can make life hazardous for brave drivers around the rim (No. 57 in near-proximity D, per Haslameterics), but when they’re overly welcoming, they can make even sketchy offenses look like they’re brimming with Caitin Clarks, especially along the arc (No. 204 in 3PT% D in last seven).
In defeating Morehead State and Duquesne, Illinois gave up a reasonable 1.048 points per possession. However, with the competition increasing dramatically, it undeniably must tighten the screws. As witnessed in flashes previously, the Fightin’ Luther Heads are capable of playing defense, but their effort on that end of the floor is quite unpredictable.
Offensively, Terrence Shannon, Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins have largely brought their “A” games thus far. The key for survival is producing a consistent wild-card fourth scorer. Among Dain Dainja, Luke Goode, Quincy Guerrier and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, Illinois so far has gotten someone to emerge. Against staunch-defending Iowa State or tour de force UConn, it will have to be dealt a pot-cashing wild card or two.
Yes, the Huskies are the runaway favorite in the East Region, but for value seekers in attendance, sinking a coin or three in Illinois isn’t an unwise investment.
If the Illini reach Glendale, Champaign will sport the state’s new peak.