As it happens every year, a team is bound to catch fire in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes, an overlooked lower seed morphs into a raging inferno. What underestimated squad from the South Region is poised to singe eyebrows? Read my sizzling hot take below.
The pick: Marquette Golden Eagles (FanDuel odds to make Final Four: +600)
Costume sausages. “Laverne & Shirley.” The treasure that was Al McGuire. Giannis. Cheese. And beers. Many, many beers.
Along Lake Michigan, Milwaukee is a fun-loving and basketball-rich town. As Alice Cooper once perfectly described in the comedy classic “Wayne’s World,” it is indeed, as Native Americans put it, “The Good Land.”
When it comes to Shaka Smart’s No. 2-seeded squad in the NCAA Tournament’s South Region, “good” most definitely applies.
A consensus top-12 overall team whether glancing at KenPom, BartTorvik, Haslameterics, Evan Miya or other nerdy sites, the Golden Eagles are strong contenders to reach sun-splashed Glendale and the Final Four.
[ More Bracket Flames: East Region | Midwest Region | West Region ]
Of course, the $64,000 question everyone is asking is “Will Tyler Kolek play?”
It’s unknown when exactly the college game’s best floor general will again mount the horse after suffering an oblique injury on Feb. 28, but there are rumblings he’ll return to action soon. It may not be Round 1 against Western Kentucky, but the second round seems likely.
If Kolek returns with little to no repercussions, Marquette is an undeniable deep-run candidate.
The South Region 🔥 pic.twitter.com/y85717iukL
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 17, 2024
On the offensive side, the boys in Blue and Gold have continued to consistently execute without their Napoleon. Over the last six games, the Golden Eagles rank No. 28 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, tallying 1.198 points per game. In fact, they’ve performed at a higher level statistically without Kolek. In the 28 games with Kolek running the show, they averaged 1.176 points per possession. Their 3-point marksmanship (37.6% since March 1) and Oso Ighodaro’s soft touch around the rim have them not skipping any scoring beats.
Defensively, Marquette has suffered a noticeable downturn. In 28 games with Kolek, it ranked No. 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency per BartTorvik. Without him, it slid to No. 78. Yes, the sample size was a 22-game difference, and all the action logged in the latter measurement was against Big East competition. Still, the fact is a bit jarring.
Really, Kolek’s prolonged absence is a silver lining. Kam Jones brilliantly showed he could handle additional responsibilities, whether scoring or distributing. Stevie Mitchell, David Joplin and Chase Ross also stepped up. With such stellar guard play, I like the Golden Eagles’ chances of soaring to Glendale, provided the rust isn’t visible if/when Kolek returns. If that happens …
Someone get me a Schlitz, stat.