As it happens every year, a team is bound to catch fire in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes, an overlooked lower seed morphs into a raging inferno. What underestimated squad from the West Region is poised to singe eyebrows? Read my sizzling hot take below.
The pick: Baylor Bears (BetMGM odds to make Final Four: +800)
Wyatt Earp, Doc Holliday, WIld Bill Hickok and Annie Oakley are just a few names who, with a cocked Colt in hand, became legends in the unruly wild, wild west.
With their sights set on Los Angeles, motivated frontiersmen like Armando Bacot, Oumar Ballo and Mark Sears are attempting to cement their own legacies.
Which team is most likely to buck up in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament? Give me the bushwackers from Waco.
[ More Bracket Flames: East Region | Midwest Region | South Region ]
Admittedly, Baylor, the No. 3 seed in the West, is a surprising choice. Going into Selection Sunday, thoughts of Scott Drew’s bunch reaching the Final Four ranked up there with Natural Light being drinkable.
At first glance, the Bears are not exactly a ferocious sloth. They finished the Big 12 regular season with their heads only slightly above water at 11-7, and they got bounced out of the conference tournament in the semifinals by Iowa State. However, their favorable draw is tough to ignore.
The West Region 👏 pic.twitter.com/X2jfKJbEKR
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 17, 2024
Baylor’s greatest asset is its offense. Over the 10 games prior to the Dance, it ranked No. 10 nationally in offensive efficiency, tallying a terrific 1.243 points per possession. Shouting from the mountaintop, it shot 53.7% inside the arc and 36.4% outside of it. The Bears also do jumping jacks on the glass, grabbing a second chance on 32.4% of their possessions.
Stellar guard play spearheaded by senior point man RayJ Dennis, the supreme marksmanship of Jalen Bridges and Jayden Nunn and the scoring explosiveness of freshman sensation Ja’Kobe Walter make my on-the-surface outlandish claim buyable. The expected return of Langston Love, who shoots a scorching 48.0% from distance, only further raises confidence.
For this daddy to afford new shoes, Baylor must tighten up defensively. A sieve for much of the season, it is just No. 259 in effective field-goal percentage D over the last month. Big man Yves Missi, who averages 1.6 blocks per game, can contest shots effectively, but the Bears still rank No. 229 in near-proximity field-goal percentage, according to Haslametrics. Equally unacceptable, they’ve allowed 35.2% from three over their last nine contests.
The formula isn’t difficult to figure out. If the Bears play suitable defense, limit turnovers and excel offensively, they will win multiple games. With beatable Clemson, Arizona and North Carolina likely entanglements after first-round opponent Colgate, Baylor is fully prepared to fire bullets into brackets.
Pay no attention to the posted rules. Feed the Bears.