NCAA Tournament futures: Kentucky is worth a sexy sprinkle

Step into any horse racing facility across the country and the clientele is entirely predictable.

The population subsection: Wrinkly baby boomers with a penchant for Marlboros, cheap draft beer, hiked-up above-the-table bumper pants and, most unremarkably, long-odds exactas.

Hey, this is Daddy Nose Best’s day. The septuagenarian says he can FEEL IT!

[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]

Appropriately across the rolling hills of Kentucky, where thoroughbreds run wild, locals are giddy about the flagship school’s NCAA Tournament prospects. For this tight-panted jockey, John Calipari’s Wildcats are worth a sexy sprinkle, especially at +3500 to win the national championship and +750 to reach the Final Four.

But only a sprinkle.

Clearly, Big Blue Nation disagrees. Reportedly, the BetMGM handle liability on Kentucky taking the entire NCAA Tournament cake is a whopping 13.0%, the second highest behind UConn (14.6%).

So why not join the party with a hefty investment?

When firing on all cylinders, the Wildcats exude peak Golden State Warrior vibes. They can score without restriction and quickly — very quickly.

As witnessed in Wednesday’s home bout against Vanderbilt, a game in which KU trailed late in the first half, it stepped on the gas, peeled out and suddenly, in practically a blink, sprinted away to a resounding 93-77 victory. Antonio Reeves and off-the-bench bucket Rob Dillingham combined for 43 points. Torrents.

At No. 3 nationally in effective-field goal percentage offense over its last 10 games, Kentucky is entirely capable of catching fire. As it has repeatedly shown, this is its finest and purest form, an identity that surely wakes up opposing coaches in a cold sweat. Reeves, Dillingham and Reed Sheppard are quite the big three. D.J. Wagner, Justin Edwards, Adou Thiero and emerging wild card Zvonimir Ivisic (just call him “Big Z”) occasionally microwave in their own right and provide luxurious depth.

What gives this college basketball junkie pause is UK's lackluster defensive effort. When committed on that end of the floor, the Wildcats are virtually unstoppable. Case in point: The triumphant 70-59 win at Auburn, a game in which the Tigers were held to a mere 0.85 points per possession. However, in Kentucky’s eight losses this season, one inexplicably at home to UNC Wilmington, it has allowed a wretched 1.215 points per possession.

Standing at an unattractive No. 197 in eFG defense since Feb. 1, the Wildcats must consistently guard to reach Glendale. Most specifically, Coach Cal needs to stress box outs. They are No. 310 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage in their last nine games. Teams, too often, are pouring salt into second-chance wounds.

With notable victories against North Carolina, Alabama and Florida, Kentucky has occasionally exhibited what’s needed to add a banner to the Rupp Arena rafters. Still, its unreliability on defense and rebounding downside paint a far grimmer picture. Unquestionably, the SEC titan is a team with possibly the widest range of NCAA Tournament outcomes.

For this riverboat gambler, backing the historical pedigree with a nominal investment across-the-board is the wisest approach.

Earn your oats, Wildcats.