Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: San Francisco +6.5, UNDER 164.5 (+100, MGM)
Steph Curry is inarguably one of the greatest arc assassins, if not the greatest, in basketball history. He has splashed an utterly insane 3,656 career 3-pointers, 1,876 at home.
The Chase Center is the house that Steph built. Nestled along the rocky and often damp shore of San Francisco Bay, the building is used to constant net soakings.
The Warriors may not unleash in their familiar surroundings Thursday (they’re in New York to face the Knicks at the Garden), but the action inside their abode is sure to bring an atmospheric river.
It’s the Dons against the ‘Zags at the Chase Center, with NCAA Tournament aspirations and WCC positioning on the line. According to local meteorologists, a 100% chance of hoop awesomeness is in store.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
With zero Quad 1 wins to its name, San Francisco is a squad trending toward the NIT. However, promptly pushing it aside isn't recommended.
Chris Gerlufsen’s Dons can absolutely ball. When surrounded by partisan fans, they’re 13-1 this season, ranking No. 11 in effective field-goal percentage offense in home matchups. Even more impressively, USF is No. 4 in eFG offense since Feb. 1, netting a sizzling 60.7% from 2-point range and 38.2% from 3.
Terrific on the offensive glass, the Dons are well-oiled offensively. Their willingness to make the extra pass (No. 107 in A/FGM) and 3-point inclination (40.0% of their shots) are outstanding attributes. Floor general Marcus Willliams, gunners Mike Sharavjamts and Ndewedo Newbury and rim protector Jonathan Mogbo comprise an unfazed group.
Defensively, though, San Francisco doesn’t deserve stirring accolades. Over the past month, it is No. 278 in eFG D, giving up 51.5% shooting inside the arc and 37.9% outside of it. The Dons are also foul prone, with over 21% of opponent points coming from the line.
Gonzaga precariously sits on the at-large fence. Despite its terrific NET standing (No. 21), other metrics lack meat. Grabbing a win on a “semi-away” floor against San Francisco would double its Quad 1 total. To sway Selection Committee members, it is needed.
The Bulldogs are 6-2 in road environments this season, checking in at No. 3 in eFG offense and No. 57 in eFG defense. At No. 26 in BartTorvik’s overall standings since Feb. 1, they have posted the nation’s finest eFG offense, converting an absurd 61.6% on 2s and 38.8% on 3s. Also active snagging second chances, Graham Ike and friends are rolling offensively.
History will be made Thursday. No college teams have played inside the nearly five-year-old Chase Center. Due to San Francisco’s splendid sharpshooting and the engine-revving nature of both offenses, the above SGP is how I’m shaking the dice.
Season record: 8-7, +1.53 units (The losing streak extended to 4)
BONUS TIME — Hawaii +2 at UC Davis (-110, MGM)