Over the NCAA Tournament's first weekend, your bracket was on the receiving end of multiple John Wick blows to the brain. Knocked out of potential winnings, the bloody remnants of your entry wallows in misery.
Another year. Another failure. Stupid Florida. Stupid lack of first-round upsets.
Hey, that’s March. And in this NIL driven era of college sports, Cinderella is barely registering a pulse.
NCAA Tournament critics are determined to convince the masses this favorite-dominated Dance is a travesty -- a trend sure to inflict irreparable harm. However, those arguments are silly. Sure, blowouts -- like in every tourney -- have been a common occurrence, but Santa Clara/Kentucky, Vanderbilt/Nebraska, High Point/Arkansas, Texas/Gonzaga, Iowa/Florida, Saint John's/Kansas and other matchups were wonderfully compelling watches.
Yes, for the little guys, the clock reads 11:59. Mid-major teams with considerable talent will continue to be poached by big budgeted Power Four schools. As a result, top-seed tossings in this age of the game will be few and far between. Still, the predictable presents epic Sweet Sixteen clashes. Texas may be the only double-digit seed remaining, but the highly competitive matchups are sure to be heart-stopping. Currently, only one contest has a spread higher than 7.5 points on BetMGM (Alabama/Michigan).
More end-game cinema. More unforgettable moments. More MADNESS.
The Sweet Sixteen stage is set. Bring on the bets.
Reassessing the field, here are thoughts on the second chance dance.
East Region
Final Four Pick: Michigan State (+425, BetMGM)
The Sparty Party continues to rage. Tap another keg. Grab a red Solo cup. And feed off the intoxicating energy. Tom Izzo’s group has the interior muscle, guard play and general basketball smarts to burn rubber to Circle City. Over its last 10 games, Michigan State is No. 11 overall on BartTorvik, ranking appreciably in all offensive categories. Turnovers and a forgiving D -- Magic Johnson U is No. 295 in effective field-goal percentage defense during the stretch -- raise questions, but its outstanding three-point marksmanship (40.8 3PT% last 10) and glass command have masked flaws. With arguably the best point guard in the game (Jeremy Fears) at the controls, the Spartans have considerable odds of reaching the Final Four for the eighth time this century. As witnessed against Siena and TCU, Duke is hardly invincible.
Sweet Sixteen Best Bet: Saint John’s +6.5 vs. Duke (-105, BetMGM) -- Thanks to Dylan Darling's unexpected heroics, the Johnnies squeaked by Kansas to taste sweetness. Despite obvious scoring inconsistencies, the formula remains unchanged for Rick Pitino. The Red Storm ceaselessly press, box out on the glass and play white-on-rice defense. They have the bodies to throw at Cam Boozer and the active hands to exploit Duke's sloppy handles. Recall the Blue Devils committed 17 turnovers in the Round of 32 against TCU. Zuby Ejofor and friends keep this one close, if not win outright.
South Region
Final Four Pick: Illinois (+200, FanDuel)
Muchas gracias, Hawkeyes. With Florida no longer a gaping pothole on the road to Indianapolis, whoever prevails in Illinois/Houston will be the presumed heavy region favorite. More frustrating than that Calc I final your freshman year, the Illini -- despite a glowing analytics profile -- committed way too many blunders in the days leading up to the Dance. Still, magnificent versus Penn and VCU in the Tournament's first weekend, they showcased why many think of the Illini as a national title dark horse. In those matchups, they commanded the glass, absolutely nuked the nets (1.325 pts/poss) and exhibited arguably their best defense in weeks (0.983 pts/poss allowed). The longest team in the tourney, Illinois has unique size, superb guard play (Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell) and an out of this world offense. Most swaying, Andrej Stojakovic has driven nails on multiple around the rim finishes -- a welcomed development. The last time Illinois reached the Final Four (2005), this now bald scribe possessed flowing locks fit for a boy band. Knock off the Cougars and it's chances of reaching Indy would jump exponentially. Hair-raising, in a good way.
Sweet Sixteen Best Bet: Illinois ML (+130, FanDuel) vs. Houston -- The Illini are a challenging matchup for a Houston team dependent on forcing turnovers, drawing fouls and crashing the offensive glass. Illinois rarely crumbles under on-ball pressure, repeatedly seals inside and infrequently attracts whistles. Oh, and the Illini are the second-best offensive team in the KenPom era. Yes, the game is in H-Town, but the significant plus money attached to an Orange and Blue win feels like a gift.
West Region
Final Four Pick: Arizona (-140, BetMGM)
Unsurprisingly, the Wildcats pawed their way to San Jose without much difficulty. It breezed past LIU 92-58 and followed up with a victory -- in a more competitive affair -- against Utah State 78-66. Sporting the stingiest defense in the remaining field (No. 1 eFG% D in NCAAT) and an explosive offense to match (1.273 pts/poss in NCAAT), Tommy Lloyd's 'Cats own few, if any, weaknesses. Of the remaining teams in the tourney, they trot out the finest starting five. The well-seasoned unit gets after it on the glass, scores at will around the rim and clamps down defensively. Arizona's size and interior strength simply wear opponents down. Arkansas is a unique challenge. It's V16 engine, Darius Acuff, pumps the pistons endlessly, scoring inside/out and at the free-throw line. However, with the Razorbacks lacking paint brawn, they will have to torch the twine from outside to topple Goliath. Assuming Arizona rings the bell in the regional semi-final, it's odds of marching past either Texas or Purdue are substantial. Picked by this doofus in the "analytical" bracket to cut down the nets, the Big 12 behemoth shouldn't shrink.
Sweet Sixteen Best Bet: Texas/Purdue 148.5o (-110, BetMGM) -- For the 'Horns and Boilers, defense will be optional inside the SAP. In games played over the last month, Texas is No. 183 in effective field-goal percentage D while Purdue ranks an appalling No. 295 in the category. Whether in the paint or along the perimeter, shot contests should provide little resistance. Throw in Matt Painter's No. 1 ranked offense (1.319 pts/poss on year) and the above average scoring chops of Hook 'Em (No. 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency), and the OVER comes into focus. Tacking on, combined both teams have cashed the OVER in nearly 55% of matchups this season. Splash the cylinder, gents.
Midwest Region
Final Four Pick: Michigan (-175, BetMGM)
The Big Ten has taken its lumps over the years, but this could be the season the slumping conference end its 26-year NCAA Tournament title drought. This Dance, it has a whopping six teams in the Sweet Sixteen and THE most 20+ point victories of any conference ever (7) . Among its remaining participants, Michigan unquestionably has the best chance to silence the streak. Though tested early, the Wolverines clobbered Howard and Saint Louis in their first two matchups. Incredibly balanced and efficient on both ends, Dusty May's men are No. 9 in the country in overall efficiency in their last 10 games, slotting top 20 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Sharp from outside (37.9 3PT% last 10) and virtually uncontainable inside (58.6 2PT%), they have converted buckets almost uninhibitedly. Yaxel Lendeborg and Aidy Mara have combined for 69 points and 22 rebounds in two games. Morez Johnson and Nimari Burnett have also inflicted pain. With arguably the easiest path to Indy among top seeds, Michigan should have Jalen Rose beaming on set in short order.
Sweet Sixteen Best Bet: Iowa State -4.5 vs. Tennessee (-110, BetMGM) -- Silencing Rick Barnes can-never-do-jack-in-the-Tournament naysayers, the Volunteers hit the sweet tooth by reaching Philadelphia. Their staunch defense and glass waxings explain why they're sill alive and kicking. Iowa State, however, is a hill Rocky Top can't climb. The Cyclones are not nearly as destructive potentially sans the services of Joshua Jefferson, but as it proved versus Kentucky, it's on-ball pressure D, three-point marksmanship and plus rebounding are outstanding. Due to its No. 233 ranking in effective field-goal percentage offense the last month, Tennessee must gobble up second chances to conquer its offensive woes. If Iowa State hangs inside and Milan Momcilovic drills daggers from the arc, it will be game, set and match in a low-scoring game fit for the pitch.