CBB Bubble Banter: Selection Sunday sweats in store for Auburn, Indiana

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With the NCAA Tournament only weeks away, The Gaming Juice’s resident Bracket Big Board steward will occasionally break down teams living in Bubbleville, discussing their standing and what’s needed to escape the sweat on Selection Sunday. 

Auburn Tigers

Just like every previous year, this season's NCAA Tournament bubble is steeped in mediocrity. And college basketball decision makers want to expand the field to 76. Yes, DePaul, there's hope. 

Auburn is probably the strongest argument for March's annual marquee event to remain at 68. 

Believe it or not, the 14-loss Tigers are still in the at-large conversation. Recall, three times in Tournament history a team with 15-losses earned an at-large berth. No team with 16 losses has received identical recognition. 

Even with Keyshawn Hall chipping in a consistent 20 points per game, the Tigers continue to lose their stripes. On the wrong side in seven of their last eight contests, they now sport a negative Wins Above Bubble return (-0.24). Most humbling, they're sandwiched between "powerhouses" Illinois-Chicago and Seattle U at No. 98 overall on BartTorvik in games played since January 31. Though stellar on the offensive glass, Auburn's woeful defense (No. 351 in eFG% D last 30) has repeatedly sunk it in meaningful matchups. 

The accumulation of losses is an eyesore, which greatly dwindles its tourney prospects. However, compared to other bubble residents, the Tigers' five Quad 1 wins and No. 2 overall strength of schedule explain why they still have a 13.8% chance to Dance according to BartTorvik. Keep in mind the Committee historically rewards teams who've satisfied the "who you played" category. 

A pair of wins over their final two regular season clashes (vs. LSU and at Alabama) are imperative. Do that and a deep SEC Tournament run likely isn't required. Split and the auto-berth would become a necessity. 

Paint this prognosticator skeptical Auburn wins even one more game.

Remaining Schedule: vs. LSU, at Alabama

California Bears 

The mental bends and contortions experienced campus-wide in Berkley aren't from certain gummies consumed. Nope, the trigger point is the local team's effort on the hardwood. 

After scoring a key home win against SMU -- a triumph that vaulted Cal into the Bracket Big Board field for the first time this season -- Oskie followed with a fur-pooping performance against lowly visiting Pittsburgh. 

Cal's combined 6-8 record versus Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents isn't a death knell, but with a Quad 3 black eye and a Charmin-soft non-conference strength of schedule on the resume (No. 331), it has two glaring self-imposed obstacles. It's unwanted No. 64 NET, No. 52 WAB and sub-70 predictive analytic (No. 73 on KenPom) standings only pile on. 

For the Golden Bears to shine, they have to prove road warriors at Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest -- the latter a Quad 1 opportunity. Defeat the Yellow Jackets and Demon Deacons, secure two victories in the ACC Tournament and the chance jump considerably Cal has its name called on Selection Sunday.

Offensively, Mark Madsen's club has executed handsomely. Over their last eight games, they're netting 1.159 points per possession while shooting 37.9% from distance. Corralling back-iron misses (185+ in OR%/DR%) and challenging shots (No. 284 eFG% D), however, are areas they need to rectify. 

Play with desperation, Cal.

Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest

Indiana Hoosiers

Can Curt Cignetti just draw up a few effective pick-n-rolls? 

Indiana basketball is a far cry to what's transpired on the gridiron. Almost impossibly, the once considered hoops blueblood has become a "football school" virtually overnight. Heck, in the Hoosiers last home loss against hapless Northwestern, the upper deck inside Assembly Hall was mostly unpopulated. Yes, at Bob Knight U. 

If the Selection Show aired today, Hoosiers players and coaches would sweat profusely. They're lopsided 2-10 Quad 1 record, 3-7 true road mark and No. 219 strength of schedule in non-conference action operate as resume drags. However, without a demoralizing Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss on the profile and with a WAB ranking slightly ahead of fellow Bubble mates Auburn, Cal, San Diego State and Virginia Tech, they currently have a slight edge. 

Indiana has opportunities left to strengthen their at-large arguement. A home title against Michigan State and a road battle at Ohio State present valuable Quad 1s. Its sorrowful efforts on the glass (300+ reb% over last 30 days) imply Lamar Wilkerson, Tucker DeVries and Tayton Conerway will need to be lights out offensively to overcome the inadequacy. Still, going 2-1 to finish the Big Ten regular season with 1-2 wins in the BTT could be enough. 

Throw a chair, Hoosiers. 

Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan State, vs. Minnesota, at Ohio State