Island NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Emeka Egbuka 50+ receiving yards (+104, DraftKings)
The 'book always wins.
See what transpired in the waning moments Sunday inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
As any Broncos backer will passionately explain, they were burned by a mysterious penalty and meaningless field-goal boot as time expired. Denver, favored by 8.5 points, won 24-17. Raiders ... stupidly cover.
Talk about a bad beat. Call the FBI. Those on the wrong side demand an investigation.
Fantasy managers and player prop backers who’ve invested considerable time, energy and/or dinero in Egbuka feel equally enraged..
Once on a seemingly unstoppable path to hoist the Offensive Rookie of the Year hardware only weeks ago -- he's now +650 to take home the honor on BetMGM -- the former Ohio State standout has soured. Including last week’s ineffective two grabs for 15 yards against the Saints, he’s finished south of 50 receiving yards in four of his last five. No bueno.
However, with Mike Evans likely to return Thursday, the bankrupted rookie could again cash.
The Falcons are thinking about Par 5s somewhere in the Lesser Antilles. Tapped out mentally, Atlanta is a painfully mediocre No. 21 in dropback EPA defense since Week 10. Over their last five games, Raheem Morris' club has allowed the second-most wide receiver yards in the NFL. In total, 13 wideouts have recorded at least 60 receiving yards against them.
Examining the matchup under a microscope, Egbuka will most often square dance with DB Mike Hughes. The coverman has yielded a mere 56.9% catch rate and 86.5 passer rating, but No. 24 in most yards allowed, he's no reborn Darrelle Revis.
Egbuka still exhibits an impressive advanced profile. He's top 15 among all WRs in total air yards (1190), red zone target share (25.0%), yards after catch (290) and yards per reception (15.2) and YAC per reception (5.4). With Evans back to help ease staunch coverage, the slumping rook should break through the late-season wall. Recall in Week 1 versus the A-T-L, he snagged four passes for 67 yards and two TDs.
If he doesn't, the house is sure to pour another Dom Perignon.
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Tampa ML, Bucky Irving anytime TD, Bijan Robinson 3+ receptions (+200, theScore)