The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Justin Jefferson OVER 63.5 receiving yards vs. Commanders (-115, BetMGM) - At the current moment, Jefferson is channeling all the Festivus energy of Frank Costanza, Oh, he has problems. And soon, you're gonna hear about it. His pent up rage is understandable. Due to the shoddy QB play of JJ McCarthy and certifiable train-wreck Max Brosmer, he's fallen short of 60 yards in four of his last five games. Hell, on the season Christian McCaffrey has more receiving yards than JJ. Yes, a running back! Though top-15 among all wideouts in air yards and yards after catch, his abysmal standings in catchable target rate (WR66) and QB rating per target (WR94) explain the struggle. This week, however, presents a prime bounce back opportunity. Washington is dead last in dropback EPA D this season, yielding the fifth-most WR yards in the NFL. Even better, his projected primary dance partner, CB Mike Sainristil, has allowed the ninth-most yards (516) of any DB in the league. Take out all of your frustrations, Justin.
BetAlytics Projection: 48.94
2. Pat Bryant OVER 25.5 receiving yards at Raiders (-110, BetMGM) - Pulled from the WTF? file, oddsmakers continue to churn out marshmallow soft lines on Bryant. They really are the gift that keeps on giving, Clark. The I-L-L product's role continues to elevate. Last week against Washington, he played on a season high 67.1% of team snaps, surpassing 40 receiving yards for the fourth time in five games. Because of his high-level run blocking, route versatility and across-the-middle grit, Sean Payton has continuously gushed about him whenever asked. Similar to what he showcased in the first matchup versus Las Vegas in Week 10, Bryant should sail past the number posted. Working primarily inside (52.7 slot%), he's likely to draw a mixture of Jeremy Chin and Darnay Holmes in coverage. Combined, the Raiders DBs have given up a 123.9 passer rating this season. Most alluring 30 wideouts have tallied at least 26 yards against LV in a dozen games. Yummy. Spread a little PB on your card.
BetAlytics Projection: 27.67
3. Jonathan Taylor UNDER 95.5 rush yards at Jaguars (-110, DK) - Hey, Evans! You ever dance with the devil under the pale moonlight? Well, Mr. Joker, this often imbecilic bettor has. Fading arguably the league's most dominate rusher is a case in point. Tongue dislodged from cheek, the number associated with Taylor is simply too high. This season, the first-place Jags have done a remarkable job containing the run. Entering the week, they're No. 12 in rush EPA D, conceding 3.76 yards per carry and the fewest RB rush yards in the league (63.7 per game). Houston's Woody Marks owns the season-best mark in the category against them and he only logged 63 yards. Stifling. Anyone with a pulse realizes Taylor's greatness. This season, he's RB1 in YAC per attempt (4.08) and RB2 in total missed tackles forced (52). Five times he's hit the century mark on the ground. Still, on the road and given Jacksonville's gap-plugging success, he's worth shaking a leg.
BetAlytics Projection: 63.51
4. Chase Brown OVER 12.5 rush attempts vs. Bills -- Sometimes when you see it, pants instantly dissolve. No, it's not bodily in nature. Simply, there are posted lines with attached attractive juice that raise arousal levels. Brown's rush attempts number is a prime example. A highly desired back in August fantasy drafts, the former Illinois standout has delivered a premium RB2 return in 12-team leagues. With little to no competition for touches, he's booked 76.5% of the opportunity share, recording 13 or more rush attempts in three straight games. Due to Buffalo's beleaguered play in the trenches, Zac Taylor should feature Brown early and often. Over their past five contests, the Bills have surrendered a generous 4.96 yards per carry. Because of their persistent up-front issues, six RBs have logged at least 13 carries against them the season. In what this scribe believes will be a closer than expected affair, Brown receives at least 15 balls to the belly.
BetAlytics Projection: NA
5. Kyle Monangai anytime TD (+200, BetMGM) - A bare-chested head coach and free hot dogs -- it doesn't get more Chicago than that. In the Windy City, the joy of the holiday season isn't from general goodwill or presumed gifts from Santa, it's because of the (expletive) Bears. A long hungry football-crazed community is delirious with Ws. D'Andre Swift and his tag-team partner are a major reason why. Still racking ground yards in Philadelphia, the duo have been nothing shy of dynamic. The pride of Piscataway has routinely trucked over would-be tacklers, grinding his way to consistent additional yardage. Since Week 8, he's generated 62.0% of his yards after initial contact. With a touchdown in four straight, he's a sensational value at the above 2:1 price. Yes, the Packers are No. 6 in rush EPA defense this season, allowing only seven combined TDs to the RB position. However, Monangai's between-the-tackles toughness, red-zone usage and Chicago's man-moving offensive line suggest he's a strong threat to score. Pass the mustard.
BetAlytics Projection: 36.5% TD chance
Season record: 27-31, -2.03 units