The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Brenton Strange OVER 3.5 receptions at Titans (+130, BetMGM) -- Even Hopper and his now much older gang of Hellfire misfits find this offer bizarre. Significant plus money on a player who posted a 5-93-0 line last week in his return and is facing inarguably one of the friendliest defenses in the league? Is it some sort of Vecna deception? 'Bizarre' is an appropriate description for the wonderfully priced prop above. Tennessee enters the week No. 29 in dropback EPA D, allowing 5.1 receptions to the tight end position. In fact, eight plus-sized targets hauled in what's required earlier this season against them. Equally encouraging is Trevor Lawrence's affinity for his tight end. Detaching from the line and running a route on 67.3% of snaps, Strange has snagged five or more passes in four of six games this year. Game script, naturally, is a deterrent. Jacksonville, predictably, is a favorite (-6) in Nashville. Still, the associated juice must be sipped. Don't tell Joyce.
BetAlytics Projection: 1.75 receptions
2. Christian McCaffrey OVER 38.5 receiving yards at Browns (-115, BetMGM) -- Up there on the consistency scale with adult beverages this celebratory imbiber consumed on Turkey Day are CMC's cashes on receiving props. With as many total receiving yards as Justin Jefferson this season, the Football Factory has effectively become San Francisco's WR1. His quick action on designed posts, slants and shallow crosses has carved up units in the short-to-intermediate field. This fall, the sure-handed back has averaged 66.3 receiving yards per game, topping 40 yards in all 12 contests. He's also set the pace in target share (26.8%) among RBs and ranks No. 2 in yards per route run (2.26) at the position. Dependable. Cleveland is robust practically everywhere defensively. Checking in at No. 3 in dropback EPA D, they've surrendered only 29.1 receiving yards per game to rushers. Sitll, as backfield pass catchers Josh Jacobs, Breece Hall and Ashton Jeanty showed previously, the Browns aren't invincible in the dump-off game. Pour another.
BetAlytics Projection: 38.99 receiving yards
3. Justin Herbert OVER 15.5 rush yards vs. Raiders (-115, BetMGM) -- On pace for several career highlights -- including cuddles with a certain bed buddy -- Herbert is having himself quite the year. His howitzer arm has often accurately hit targets, but it’s his opportunistic runs that have added insult to injury. Herbert has stuck to his preseason goal to scramble more. His 345 yards accumulated on the ground is already a career best. Calling his number 4.9 times per game, he’s averaged a QB-high 6.39 yards per carry. Overall, he’s exceeded the required above number in nine of 11 games. Week 2 against the Raiders, Herbert bolted for 31 yards on a season-high nine carries. In the rematch, Maxx Crosby and cohorts are sure to flush him from the pocket five-plus times. Las Vegas has given up the sixth-fewest rush yards to passers this season. Still, Herbert’s penchant for pressing his own pedal is unignorable.
BetAlytics Projection: 25.93 rush yards
4. Aaron Rodgers UNDER 209.5 pass yards vs. Bills (-115, BetMGM) -- Postseason ayhuasca excursions in Thailand and a Steelers playoff berth may be high on Rodgers' holiday wishlist, but Santa may not deliver the latter. The Ravens and suddenly resurgent Bengals -- an annual occurrence this time of year -- increase Pittsburgh's playoff uncertainty. A win against Buffalo, however, would provide some distance in the AFC North. Given the Bills' glaring interior defensive weakness, bank on Rodgers to leave gun in holster. A heavy dose of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell is likely with Sean McDermott's team near the bottom in several rush D categories. Considering they're also No. 6 in dropback EPA D allowing only 6.68 pass yards per attempt and 182.8 pass yards per game, the future HOFer is likely to play game manager. Only four QBs have cracked 210 pass yards against the Bills this season. Toss in Rodgers' unattractive QB39 standing in air yards per attempt and his 196.9 pass yards per game average, and the UNDER argument grows. Channel Michal Scott, A-a-ron.
BetAlytics Projection: 225.15 pass yards
5. Pat Bryant OVER 20.5 receiving yards at Commanders (-115, BetMGM) -- Saturday in Bryant's old stomping grounds -- Champaign, Ill. -- the Fighting Illini will attempt to snow under their Land of Lincoln rival (Northwestern) in what could be a full-blown blizzard. Though conditions will be far more pleasant in D.C. Sunday night, the visiting Bronco could bury the Commanders. As discussed earlier this week, Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin remain entrenched as Bo Nix's WR1 and WR2, but the rookie is becoming more and more relied upon. Logging action on at least 50% of the snap share in four straight games, he's raced past 21 receiving yards three times -- including a season-best 82 yards last week versus KC. Crafty on between-the-hashmark routes, Bryant has become a slant staple in Sean Payton's attack. Primarily working from the slot, he's averaged a dynamite 15.4 yards per catch. Slated to exchange season's greetings most often with Mike Sainristil -- the DB has given up the third-most yards among slot corners this year -- he's a viable OCC (One Catch Cash) candidate. Washington's dead last ranking in dropback EPA D only adds to the sentiment. Grab that shuffle and dig deep, gamers.
BetAlytics Projection: 37.36 receiving yards
Season record: 24-29, -3.13 units