The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)
1. Rashee Rice 75+ receiving yards at Broncos (-112, DraftKings) -- He's a perfect pillowy cushion served in a bowl with tons of receptions on top. KC’s Rice is one delicious dish -- especially in an underpriced market. Yes, Denver has played admirably the last two games without the services of all-world corner Patrick Surtain, but those efforts came against the subpar passing attacks of Houston and Las Vegas. As we’re all keenly aware, Patrick Mahomes is a very different -- and far more daunting -- dude. With Rice working more outside (35.0 slot%), expect him to get a heavy dose of CB Riley Moss. One of the most forgiving DBs in the league, the Iowa product has yielded the third-most yards (454) of any defender this season. Coasting past the 75-yard mark in back-to-back contests and given his extraordinary after-catch abilities, he should race past the threshold yet again. His 8.7 targets per game average and top-five standing in yards per route run (2.69) only solidify the belief.
BetAlytics Projection: 100.80
2. Jaylen Waddle 80+ receiving yards vs. Commanders (+100, ESPN Bet) -- Shake your damn tailfeather. In a game that requires roughly 4.5 bottles of tempranillo for common fans to endure, Waddle is bound to wade in catches. The Commanders are blackout drunk defensively, stumbling, bumbling and fumbling in coverage. Entering the week dead last in dropback EPA defense, they have given up the most wide receiver yards this season. In total, seven wideouts have hauled in at least 80 yards against them. Primarily slated to exchange salutations with punching bag Jonathan Jones (71.4 catch%, 109.2 passer rating allowed), Miami’s WR1 should have Spaniards raising glasses and shouting “Salud!” More selling points, Waddle is WR11 in total air yards, WR6 in yards per route run and WR9 in explosive rating on PlayerProfiler. Surpassing 80 yards in five of his last six games, he’s worth waking up for.
BetAlytics Projection: 92.03
3. Woody Marks OVER 61.5 rush yards at Titans (-115, BetMGM) -- On the Week 11 treasure map, X certainly ‘Marks’ the spot. With Nick Chubb chilling in the backseat, the younger complement has steadily earned the lion’s share. He’s recorded at least 10 carries in four straight, playing a season high 81.3% of team snaps in Week 10. At No. 9 in yards created per touch, the former Trojan is sure to ‘Fight on’ against a Titans front No. 27 in rush EPA defense. Through 10 weeks, Tennessee has given up 4.92 yards per carry and 114.3 rush yards per game to RBs. Overall, eight rushers have galloped to a minimum of 65 yards against them. Unearth that chest full of gold. Make money on Marks.
BetAlytics Projection: 47.58
4. Saquon Barkley UNDER 73.5 rush yards at Lions (BetMGM) -- Saquon is in dire need of a slump buster. Maybe he needs to go as far as visiting a voodoo priestess to flush whatever dragging demons are milling about in his system. Among qualifying running backs, he currently ranks rock bottom in yards after contact per attempt. Practically any sensible person expected regression after last season’s 2,000 yard effort, but for him to suddenly become AJ Dillion in concrete shoes was unexpected. Adding to the craziness, Philadelphia ranks No. 8 in run-blocking efficiency on Pro Football Focus. Point fingers at the road-graters all you want, but No. 26 bears considerable responsibility for the numbers slide. Don’t bank on a sudden about-face in Week 11. His opponent, Detroit, ranks No. 11 in rush EPA defense, yielding 4.11 yards per carry and the fourth-fewest RB rush yards on the season (72.9 per game). Only Quinshon Judkins and Aaron Jones reached 74 ground yards against them. It’s doubtful Barkely becomes the third.
BetAlytics Projection: 47.38
5. SGP: Jaylen Warren 60+ rush yards. Anytime TD (+102, DraftKings) -- Next to a giant bowl of freshly made guacamole paired with a top-shelf anejo pour, there isn’t anything much more satisfying than constructing plus money bets against Cincinnati’s trashy D. Most libido-driving, Mike Tomlin publicly expressed his desire to feature Warren more in the ground game earlier this week. A matchup against a unit No. 31 in rush EPA D is the perfect time to do exactly that. This season, the Bungles have conceded the most rush yards to RB, surrendering 5.47 yards per carry and 141.1 rush yards per game to the position. In the first meeting in Week 7, Warren gashed Cincy for 127 ground yards on 16 carries. He did fail to find the end zone, but scoring five times in his last nine games, he’s a strong cross-the-chalk candidate in the rematch. The tarnished Queen City Cats have allowed 13 total TDs to RBs this year. Stick to your word, Tomlin.
BetAlytics Projection: 75.60 rush yards, 63.2% TD chance
Season record: 21-22, +0.82 units