Week 7 NFL Top Props: Right on Q

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The Gaming Juice’s resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours the ‘books to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. 

(Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered)

1. Quinshon Judkins 100+ rush yards vs. Dolphins (+164, DraftKings) -- Considerably more powerful than Brownie the Elf running downhill, Judkins will be far from playful against Miami's transparent front. This season, the Dolphins ranks No. 30 in rush EPA D, surrendering an overly generous 5.59 yards per carry and 134.3 rush yards per game -- the most allowed to running backs of any NFL team. Facing a better-than-advertised Cleveland offensive line, Anthony Weaver's trench hogs will soon become bacon. Crunched by Carolina's Rico Dowdle, Kimani Vidal and James Cook -- each rusher topped the century mark against them earlier this season -- they're sure to accent a sandwich. Judkins is one of the most effective thumpers in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, he's RB5 in yards after contact per attempt (3.87) and RB15 in total missed tackles forced (15). Rolling up 110 yards versus Minnesota in Week 5, he's a strong triple-digit candidate. At a very sexy +164, Judkins could pay handsomely in fantasy and betting -- especially if the expected blustery conditions take hold. 

BetAlytics Projection: 53.09

2. Cade Otton OVER 40.5 receiving yards at Lions (-115, BetMGM) -- Is Keyshawn Johnson still in game shape? What about Joey Galloway? Heck, Mark Carrier surely can still run quick slants at 59 years young. Suffice it to say, The Buccaneers receiving corps — missing several noteworthy pass catchers — is rather depleted. Mike Evans could return and the Johnsons (Kameron and Tez) pack arousing upside, but Otton is likely to earn the biggest target spike. Over the past couple games, a noticeable surge in his usage has occurred. Against Seattle and San Francisco, he combined for 50 routes run, 11 targets, nine receptions and 132 yards. He only eclipsed the proposed number in those matchups, but with Evans’ status undetermined along with Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (fibula) sidelined, he’s practically a layup for another five-plus targets. At TE9 in average yards of separation per target and netting a healthy 11.1 yards per catch, he’s a strong tail -- especially in a game with a stratospheric total (55.5). The Lions only run zone schemes the 26th-most times in the league, but Dan Campbell’s bunch have allowed 4.8 receptions and 52.6 yards per game to TEs. For the third-straight week, Otton reaches the half-century mark. 

BetAlytics Projection: 44.82 receiving yards 

3. Jayden Daniels OVER 1.5 pass TDs at Cowboys (-110, BetMGM) -- In practically every game this season, the points have been crazy plentiful in Dallas matchups. Defensively, the Cowpokes are meandering the land on the back of an elderly burrow. No team in the NFL ranks lower than Little D in dropback EPA defense. Through six games, they've allowed an astronomical 8.34 pass yards per attempt, 286.5 pass yards per game and 15 passing touchdowns. They've given up at least a pair of air strikes in five straight games, including three to an over-the-hill Russell Wilson. Yes, it's a small sample size (four games), but Daniels has completed an impressive 66.7% of his red-zone twirls, posting the seventh-best red-zone catchable rate (71.4%). With Terry McLaurin likely back in uniform and given the mouthwatering matchup, he likely spins at least a pair of passing TDs for the third time in his last four contests. Frankly, the associated juice should be closer to -2000.

BetAlytics Projection: 2.34 pass TDs

4. Jaxson Dart OVER 40.5 rush yards at Broncos (-110, ESPN Bet) -- October 7 marked the first time these eyes beared witness to the first Christmas commercial of the season. It's too damn early, Home Depot. However, channeling that spirit, this bettor is optimistic dash way, dash away Dart is a central theme in Denver. Vanilla Vick has run madly in his first three starts. Over that stretch, he's cranked.out consistent 50+ yard ground performances, averaging 6.40 rush attempts per game and 5.22 yards per carry. Calling his own number could be frequent versus a Broncos defense No. 1 in pocket pressure rate (33.8%). They're a sensational D, but the increased heat combined with Dart's propensity to scramble is a recipe for sizable leg production. Hit the board. 

BetAlytics Projection: 28.92 rush yards

5. Justin Jefferson UNDER 77.5 receiving yards vs. Eagles (-115, BetMGM) -- Admittedly, this one may smack us in the face like a tension strap Anthony Richardson's orbital bone in warmups. It's Jefferson -- arguably the best wide receiver in the NFC. The reasons to fade him, however, are convincing. JJ McCarthy's likely reactivation combined with the undesirable matchup immediately come to mind. In two games before succumbing to an ankle setback, the green quarterback ranked only No. 37 in adjusted completion percentage. Barf. His likely slow development combined with exchanges against an above average Eagles pass D speak to tempered expectations. Most deflating, Jefferson is bound to see a heavy dose of CB Quinyon Mitchell, a DB who's allowed only a 48.6% catch rate, 9.3 yards per receptions and a 61.5 passer rating. Off back-to-back 100 yard games, JJ posts good, but not great numbers. 

BetAlytics Projection: 77.73 receiving yards

Season record: 13-10, +3.45 units