Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points; RB: 12 fantasy points [10 for shockers], WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; .5 PPR).
Daniel Jones, Colts
| Start pct. | 44% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | vs. Raiders |
| BetMGM line | Ind -6.5 |
| BetMGM total | 47.5 |
| BetAlytics proj. | NA pts |
In the back-dripping heat of early August, the annual Red Grange Invitational went down at Casa de Evans. Fourteen dudes gathered to laugh, exchange smack, joyously imbibe and, of course, auction.
As always in the challenging SuperFlex format, bids and strategies were all over the map. Some players went for bank-breaking sums (Lamar Jackson $64), as most pre-determined approaches strayed away from original intentions.
Relatively deep into the exercise, this jackass -- running low on cash -- needed a reserve QB. With Joe Burrow and Bryce Young already on roster (Don’t ask how that’s going), one available player was highlighted on the cheat sheet -- Daniel Jones.
At the time, Shane Steichen hadn’t revealed his hand. There were some minor rumblings Jones could secure the gig, but the widely held belief was Anthony Richardson would earn first-team snaps. This hopeful drafter tossed out the former Giants flop for $2. Crickets. When the auctioneer shouted “SOLD!” the draft room collectively ripped the pick.
With the benefit of hindsight, this Colts QB purchaser sports a beaming smile. Four weeks into the NFL regular season, Jones, rather shockingly, is QB6 in overall fantasy scoring. Showcasing the multipurpose skills that netted him an obscenely overpriced contract with the Giants, he’s delivered weekly high-floor results, averaging 283.0 combined pass/rush yards per game while accounting for seven total touchdowns.
Glancing at deeper metrics, he’s QB15 in adjusted completion percentage, QB5 in deep-ball completion percentage and QB4 in expected fantasy points. Those encouraging results clearly suggest his early season production isn’t some desert mirage.
This week, Indiana Jones and the Colts hope to drink from the holy grail at home versus Vegas.
Vertically speaking, the Raiders are quite beatable. Thus far, they’re No. 24 in pass EPA defense, surrendering 7.24 pass yards per attempt, 237.0 pass yards per game, six total touchdowns and the 13th-most fantasy points to passers. In other words, Pete Carroll’s crew has lived down to their basement-dwelling back-end defensive expectations.
Crack a whip and strongly consider inserting Jones into 12-team starting lineups.
The much lampooned QB pick in fantasy drafts could have investors laughing all the way to the winner’s circle in Week 5.
Fearless Forecast: 258 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interceptions, 21 rushing yards, 22.0 fantasy points
Jaxson Dart, Giants
| Start pct. | 6% on Yahoo |
| Matchup | at Saints |
| BetMGM line | NYG -2.5 |
| BetMGM total | 41.5 |
| BetAlytics proj. | NA pts |
The sun-baked smells that emanate from Bourbon Street corrupt olfactory systems. When the overwhelming stench hits the nostrils an automatic repulsive reaction overcomes the face. The amalgamation of human expulsions raise the wretch.
Nearby inside the SuperDome, 'Nawlins football emits a similar stink.
Though competitive for 3.5 quarters last week as 16.5-point opening 'dogs at Buffalo, the Fleur de lis is failing. Barreling toward the No. 1 overall pick, the new and very much not improved 'Aints are 0-4 with little hope of winning even three games. Suffice it to say, this gambler's "worst record" ticket fired off in May is looking mighty fine. Keep sucking, Saints.
Dart didn't exactly resemble Phil Simms in his prime in his starting debut, but he occasionally made precise throws, displaying solid command of the offense while playing mistake-free football.
Most terrifically, he ran the rock with reckless abandon. Whether on designed or opportunistic scampers, he showed considerable leg churn and open-field burst. As a rusher, Dart -- savvy, assertive and industrious when calling his own number -- resembled a mixture of Josh Allen, Justin Fields and Patrick Mahomes. He bolted 10 times for 54 yards and a touchdown. And this raging nincompoop believed his 34.5 rush yards prop at BetMGM was astronomical. Impressive to say the least.
New Orleans enters Week 5 with its tail tucked between the legs. Brandon Staley's defense has performed decently versus the run -- the Saints are No. 14 in rush EPA defense -- but outside the top 25 in dropback EPA D, they exhibit little vertical resistance. In total, they've surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to passers, giving up 7.96 pass yards per attempt, 221.0 pass yards per game and 10 combined touchdowns.
Malik Nabers' rest-of-season derailment (ACL) is a steel-toed boot to the teeth. "Lacking" best describes an arsenal of Wan'Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt and Theo Johnson. Frankly, they probably wouldn't make the Little Giants sweat.
Still, seriously weigh Dart's services. His reads, progressions and arm action is still a work in progress, but this is a prime "maximize the matchup" example.
Fearless Forecast: 179 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 21.9 fantasy points