Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: SGP - JK Dobbins anytime TD, Denver -2.5 (+114, Caesars)
You and the fam head to the nearby ice cream shop on an unusually sweltering early fall day. As you undecidedly debate various menu options you reluctantly settle on two scoops of the simple white stuff, resolved it will satisfy the sweet tooth.
However, as you pick up your order, turn and walk past other well-served patrons, regret immediately kicks in. All of their colorful confections are piled high with candy toppings, caramel and mouthwatering fudge. You promptly begin to second guess.
The above feeling is precisely what fantasy managers conveyed when shelling out a mid-draft pick on Dobbins in August drafts.
So bland. So meh. So … vanilla.
Three weeks in, however, the questioned move is looking genius.
Entering Week 4, Denver’s engine has steamed ahead to profitability, posting the 11th-most valuable RB line in half-point PPR formats. He’s scored in every game, compiled at least 60 total yards in each and has averaged a stellar 5.4 yards per carry. Quite flavorful.
Under the surface, the returns have also been a sugary surprise. Among qualifying rushers on Pro Football Focus, he’s RB5 in yards after contact per attempt (4.07) and RB10 in total missed tackles forced (9). On a noteworthy 62.7% of the opportunity share, he’s also RB14 in yards created per touch (4.13) and RB2 in explosive rating as tracked at PlayerProfiler. Pretty sweet.
Keeping rookie hotshot RJ Harvey at arm’s length, Dobbins should again dash backers to the cash in the Week 4 capper.
Practically in every imaginable area, a herd of bumbling Bungles has overtaken the Queen City. Currently, Cincinnati stands at No. 26 in rush EPA defense, giving up 4.47 yards per carry, 154.0 total yards per game and five combined TDs to RBs. Cratering last week in Minnesota, they’re in complete disarray.
A king of consistency sitting in the same court as Buffalo's James Cook, Dobbins is a strong candidate to again cross the chalk.
Get the sprinkles.
Season props record: 5-4, -+0.99 units
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: SGP - Garrett Wilson 50+ receiving yards, Justin Fields 25+ rushing yards, De’Von Achane 25+ receiving yards (+115, BetMGM)
Season parlay record: 3-6, -2.45 units