Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow -- that’s up to you.
The Pick: Jake Ferguson OVER 6.5 receptions (+112, DraftKings)
In a vein similar to old school Jason Witten, Dallas’ fast-rising tight end has entered the “best possession receiver” chat. Working the thumbs with CeeDee Lamb sidelined (ankle), he’s a highly investable option to again rack the receptions.
Ferguson’s massive featured role over an abbreviated period is nothing short of extraordinary. In his last two games -- one with Lamb on the field over four quarters -- he lured 32 total targets, catching an absurd 22 passes. Running a route on 72.9% of his snaps played through three contests, he’s essentially become a slot-man sensation in Little D.
Dak’s fondness for the between-the-hashmarks heartthrob surely won’t diminish. Ferguson’s off-the-charts 24.8 target percentage is No. 2 among tight ends. He’s also top-five at the position in routes run (33.0), air yards (153), first-read target share (26.3%) and contested catches (7).
Most importantly, Green Bay’s over-the-middle coverage has been subpar at best. Despite their glowing results in other defensive arenas, the Pack has conceded the fourth-most receptions to the tight end position (21). Sam LaPorta, Zach Ertz and David Njoku each snared five or more passes against them. Their efforts were just shy of the required number, but, again, without Lamb on the field, Ferguson is bound to work up a profuse lather. George Pickens, Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin aren’t exactly high-volume targets.
Adding to the upside, Dallas is a seven-point underdog. Even better, due to its overly tolerant secondary, chances are strong Brian Schottenheimer’s squad will be forced to play from behind. If that occurs, Ferguson tees off -- especially given Green Bay’s affinity for zone coverage. On third downs alone this season, Jeff Hafley’s D has featured the defensive scheme 47.5% of the time. The ascending tight end is prime zone-buster material.
This general imbecile believes Dallas’ Fergie brings the “Boom Boom Pow” in primetime.
Season props record: 4-4, -0.13 units
NO CONTEXT PARLAY PLAY: Jordan Love 2+ pass TDs, Jordan Love 200+ pass yards, Javonte Williams 2+ receptions (+132, DraftKings)
Season parlay record: 2-6, -3.79 units