Primetime NFL games bring in the numbers -- and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow? That’s up to you.
Prop Play: George Pickens OVER 21.5 yards longest catch at Eagles (-120, DraftKings)
If football hadn’t made him rich and famous, Pickens would’ve probably established himself as an elite Cirque du Soleil performer. His bends and contortions simply defy the eye. The wideout's ball-tracking skills and sideline self-awareness shun common beliefs. He’s a freak and one of the modern game’s unrivaled downfield playmakers.
In the opener, expect Dallas’ on-field acrobat to show off his anti-physics flexibility.
Ranking handsomely in air yards (1401, WR13) and yards per catch (15.3, WR14) last year with Pittsburgh, Pickens should pick up where he left off. Yes, the Eagles own a top-10 pass defense, but the WR’s projected primary assignment, former Giant Adoree’ Jackson, ranked a mediocre No. 52 in pass coverage grade last season according to Pro Football Focus.
Last season, Pickens connected with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields a combined 15 times for areial gains of 22+ yards. His tremendous dexterity and focus combined with Dak Prescott’s accurate big-play howitzer (QB12 in deep-ball cmp% in '24) should lead to consistent OVER cashes on his longest catch prop.
Toss in the likelihood Dallas gets smoked early and the long-bomb specialist’s odds of detonating at some point increase substantially.
This optimistic gambler is happy to ‘Pick’ the perceived low-hanging fruit.
Season TNF prop record: 0-0, 0.00 units
PARLAY BUILD
SGP: Jalen Hurts anytime TD, George Pickens 25+ receiving yards, Dak Prescott 200+ pass yards (+128, DraftKings)
Jalen Hurts anytime TD - The Tush Push didn’t meet its demise this past offseason. The still very legal and very lethal play will continue to be a Philly staple inside the five. Hurts, who can squat elephants in the gym, averaged a QB-high 3.1 red-zone carries per game last year, plowing into the end zone 14 times. Against a Little D front which could dwell in the rush EPA dungeon this season, he could root across the chalk multiple times.
George Pickens 25+ receiving yards - The Eagles secondary may have its fair share of question marks, but defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a schematic mastermind. His strategic brain is precisely why many pundits believe Philly owns a top-10 pass defense. It’s not the most alluring matchup, but in a contest where Dallas is likely to spin 40+ spirals, Pickens should be on the receiving end of at least a couple chunk gains. In 2024, the bendy wideout finished his final season with Pittsburgh top 15 in total air yards and yards per reception. Expected to clash often with CB Adoree’ Jackson -- he finished last season a middling No. 52 in pass coverage grade per Pro Football Focus -- the receiver with remarkable adjustment skills should bend like Neo in ‘The Matrix’ and secure what’s needed.
Dak Prescott 200+ pass yards - Correlate. Synergize. And bring it all together. Mini-stacking with the previous prop, Prescott should race past 200 yards in sweat-free fashion. Again, Dallas’ defense is destined to be philanthropic in nature. True givers, the widely perceived inept unit will crank the QB’s weekly volume to 11. It would be no shock if the signal caller finished at or near the top in pass attempts per game. Averaging 254.6 pass yards per game in 12 career clashes versus Philly, the Dak Attack cleans up in garbage time. With Pickens, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson as primary weapons, he could reach the above number by halftime.
Season SGP record: 0-0, 0.00 units