The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise -- fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Washington Commanders
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Fantasy value - Terry McLaurin, WR (ADP: 45.09, WR22) - The "scary" around Terry may be building in light of his recent trade demands, but confident fantasy drafters aren't remotely shivering in their sneakers. Admittedly, it's a touch-and-go situation where both sides are very dug in, but usually in contract disputes the swaying 'c' word -- compromise -- is eventually employed. At print time, this often-wrong prognosticator is optimistic a deal will get done before the Commanders' opener versus the division rival Giants.
Due to the front-facing contract noise, McLaurin's ADP is starting it's decent. Widely perceived as a mid-ranged WR2 in 12-team drafts just weeks ago, he's now largely available at or near the Round 4-5 turn. Expect the price to further decline each and every day when the sun sets without a resolution.
Dice rollers with a "screw it" attitude may reap major reward. Last fall, he finished inside the WR top 15 in per game average, totaling an outstanding 92-1096-13 line. His QB rating when targeted was an obscene 133.1, the third-best mark of any wideout in the league. His chemistry with Daniels bubbled, but doubts about sustainability are warranted. The Commanders, however, do sports the sixth-easiest projected fantasy WR strength of schedule.
End of day, if you're a card-carrying member of #TeamHuevos, the outward posturing by McLaurin and his camp shouldn't overly concern you. He's a certifiable WR2 when on the field.
His draft dip is underway. Take advantage.
Prop pick - Jayden Daniels OVER 725.5 rush yards (+100, BetMGM) - In the open field, Daniels runs similar to a busty blonde sprinting through the woods from some blood-thirsty axe wielder in any number of horror flicks. He glides, chews up real estate and evades would-be tacklers. Many questioned his durability as a rookie, but he quickly silenced doubters. In his inaugural season, he did a tremendous job getting out of bounds, sliding down or side-stepping linebackers to avoid punishable contact.
This prop is entirely based on sustainable healthy. Last year, Daniels bolted for 891 rush yards. His 148 carries and 52.4 yards per game both ranked second among quarterbacks. Stud.
Also influential, Washington's middle-of-the-road offensive line combined with its sketchy defense could enhance Daniels' rush potential. Dialed up pocket pressure will lead to flush-and-run opportunities. Meanwhile, scoreboard chasing could bolster garbage-time scrambles with defenses sitting back in prevent coverage.
Most fearless forecasters have the thicker Daniels well north of 800 rush yards again. At plus money to tally only 726 ground yards, he's a marvelous interest-free monthslong investment.
Team lean - Commanders UNDER 9.5 regular season wins (+105, BetMGM) - The storybook season Washington scribbled last year was nothing short of enrapturing. It still blows the mind the Commanders were only one game away from a Super Bowl appearance. Their shocker special still has jaws dropped.
However, no longer the hunter, the hunted could regress in the followup. McLaurin's possible absence combined with a projected bottom-five defense raise red flags. Washington’s 10th-hardest strength of schedule only ratchets suspicion.
ESPN's Mike Clay pegs Dan Quinn's club for 8.8 wins this season, giving them a 52% or greater win probability in eight games. Tough-to-call road matchups at the Chargers and Cowboys along with a home tilt versus Denver could ultimately decide this bettor's fate.
Final buzzer, eight wins feels like the finish.