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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Chicago Bears.
Fantasy value — Rome Odunze, WR (ADP: 69.61, WR36)
Whether referencing the historical civilization or Chicago’s sophomore wide receiver, Rome wasn’t built in a day. However, given his upgraded surrounding environment and the departure of Keenan Allen (121 targets in 2024), it’s clear the needle on the former Washington Husky is pointing UP.
Though he landed outside the WR top 50 in total scoring in his rookie campaign, Odunze displayed a few encouraging signs. He finished in the top 15 among all wideouts in total air yards (1,398, WR14), average depth of target (13.8, WR11), contested catch rate (54.5%, WR13) and red zone targets (18, WR10).
His WR2 tally in unrealized air yards stoked frustration, but if Ben Johnson’s schematic alterations unleash Caleb Williams’ accuracy, Odunze is a breakout layup. Keep in mind: He also tallied the 32nd most route wins of any wideout last season. The separation skills are apparent.
Critics will continue to dwell on last year’s repeated misconnections. They’ll also continuously harp on Chicago’s daunting third-hardest schedule for fantasy WRs. Both do raise the risk.
Still, Odunze’s ultra-affordable price and the offseason changes at Halas Hall point to a terrific season in the range of 75-1050-7. If he achieves that, a top-30 standing among fantasy wideouts is a foregone conclusion. Buy the hype.
Prop pick — Caleb Williams OVER 25+ passing touchdowns (+140, DraftKings)
For the last several weeks across social media, haters have tossed nothing but cold water on any notion a Bears quarterback could remotely be fantasy relevant. As disparagers have reminded the masses again and again, no Chicago passer has ever thrown for 30 touchdowns in a season. Nope, not a single one in the 105-year history of the franchise.
On a cloud above, “Papa Bear” George Halas is just as miffed as every other rollicking Black and Blue fan by that fact. Streaks are made to be broken, though.
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Williams scrambled for his life in his rookie season, so the former USC standout failed to plunge many short swords. Largely due to his unwillingness to quickly release the football, he finished No. 23 or worse in every completion percentage category. Despite tossing the 11th-most red zone attempts of any QB in the league, he managed only 20 passing TDs.
However, as discussed at length previously, Williams is a prime breakout candidate in his first season under Johnson. The offensive architect’s implementations, an improved offensive line and the additions of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden should unlock the sophomore quarterback’s potential.
Chicago’s fantasy QB strength of schedule is unattractive, with only the Giants, Jets and Packers having a tougher row to hoe, and the young QB’s reluctance about playing in Chicago was well-publicized this offseason. But the partnership with Johnson should be immediately productive.
In Year 2, Williams twirls at least 25 end zone strikes.
Team lean — Bears OVER 8.5 regular-season wins (+110, BetMGM)
Yes, this Bears enthusiast often dons a Dick Butkus throwback jersey. As a franchise fan, thoughts of the Super Bowl Shuffle still bring an ear-to-ear smile. But the pain — Oh, the downright misery! — is most associated with my loyalty to the organization. So many needed beers. So many.
Pushing pessimism aside and attempting to bury the bias, the Bears will make strides this season. The schedule is pocked with potholes (No. 25 SOS), but with arguably a top-10 defense and an ascending offense, warm and fuzzy feelings are warranted.
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects 8.6 victories for the Monsters of the Midway, giving them a 52% or greater win probability in nine contests. For the OVER to cash, grabbing Ws in coin-flip home matchups against Minnesota (Week 1), Pittsburgh (Week 12) and archrival Green Bay (Week 16) are most imperative.
Maybe the Malort is giving this gambler the liquid courage, but last year’s NFC North basement dwellers should rise to the occasion, compete for a division title and secure a wild-card berth.
Overly optimistic? Blame the wormwood.