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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: San Francisco 49ers.
Fantasy value — Christian McCaffrey, RB (ADP: 12.92, RB6)
There’s a new phenomenon among the young dating masses: banksying. It’s when a partner gradually withdraws emotionally without informing the other of their true feelings.
#TeamRaisins.
Similar to the cowardly relationship trend, fantasy footballers have conveyed identical apprehensions this offseason toward McCaffrey. Some have reluctantly buried the hatchet. Neveragainers, however, are still tending to festering wounds.
Affections toward the former fantasy king have picked up, but the 49ers running back is largely falling to the turn in 12-team drafts. Given what was witnessed in the recent past — 2023’s position-pacing numbers immediately come to mind — the current price should be viewed as a sizable discount.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
As long as his tendons remain intact, the Football Factory is in position to crank out RB1 totals. As previously discussed, McCaffrey had zero restrictions this offseason coming off bilateral Achilles tendonitis. It’s equally promising that San Francisco’s top-half offensive line is likely to pave exploitable paths.
Also, the Niners’ sketchy defense — ESPN’s Mike Clay ranks the unit No. 32 entering the season — should greatly bolster his receiving contributions. Eighty catches or more are possible.
Toss in San Francisco's eighth-easiest projected fantasy RB schedule, and McCaffrey’s chances for a return to greatness spike. Isaac Guerendo is likely to earn roughly 25% to 30% of the opportunity share, but lightening CMC’s load should be considered a brainy move by Kyle Shanahan.
Forget the risk. A season-long love for the former fantasy heartthrob could burn brightly.
Prop pick — Brock Purdy 4,000 or more passing yards (+120, DraftKings)
The 49ers frontman is a sexy target in high heels. For fantasy and betting purposes, he is indeed quite Purdy. Forget Sydney Sweeney. OK, maybe just for a millisecond.
Bettors panning for gold at plus money need to strongly weigh the merits of the offer above. Heck, the San Francisco slinger is in the conversation to lead the NFL in passing yards. At +950 on Caesars to do exactly that, it's an even better investment.
The bullish sentiment is warranted. The aforementioned defense of Robert Saleh could be overly forgiving, thrusting Purdy into numerous high-volume situations. That matched with an unintimidating schedule (QB18 SOS) and a quality receiving arsenal signal an excellent return. Also, the former Mr. Irrelevant tucked inside the top 10 in four different completion percentage categories in a somewhat down 2024 season.
Tally it up, and Purdy could spin 4,500 or more yards. Again, the +120 payout seems like a gift.
Team lean — 49ers UNDER 10.5 regular-season wins (-110, Caesars)
Last year’s six-win cratering isn’t likely to be repeated, but the proposed W total is aggressive.
According to Clay, George Kittle’s gang is forecasted to emerge victorious in only 8.1 games. The prognosticator's sophisticated algo gives the Niners a greater than 50% win probability in just seven contests. And that's with THE easiest projected strength of schedule.
If Saleh can work his magic and greatly outproduce the defense’s very low expectations, 11 victories aren’t a pipe dream. However, the odds of that occurring are incredibly slim.