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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Indianapolis Colts.
Fantasy value — Josh Downs, WR (ADP: 128.7, WR49)
To quote Brian Fantana from the comedy classic “Anchorman”: “Sixty percent of the time it works every time.” No, the line doesn’t pertain to Sex Panther, but it very much applies to the Colts offense.
When your starting quarterback battle features an arm incapable of throwing a golf ball through a hula hoop (Anthony Richardson) and a grossly overpaid passer who bombed in the Big Apple (Daniel Jones), positive vibes are immediately dashed.
Downs, however, remains a player of interest in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Last season when partially petrified Joe Flacco was at the controls, the wide receiver thrived. The ancient veteran QB’s competency running Indy’s offense unlocked Downs’ potential. Over the seven-game stretch, he averaged an impactful 7.1 receptions and 66.4 yards per game and totaled three touchdowns. His resulting 12.7 fantasy points per game in 0.5 PPR leagues would’ve ranked top-20 over the full season.
Given the slot man’s general usage, his advanced metrics profile was unappealing with the exception of two standout categories. Downs finished WR17 in yards after catch and tallied the fifth-highest route win percentage among WRs. The dude not only generates appreciable separation, but he also chews up real estate in the open field. Both qualities should command fantasy managers’ attention.
With the fifth-easiest fantasy strength of schedule for wide receivers and Jones the front-runner to win the starting QB job, Downs is a voluptuous mid-draft grab in 12-team leagues.
Prop pick — Jonathan Taylor OVER 1,200.5 rushing yards (-120, DraftKings)
Offensive coordinator and presumed professional alligator wrestler Jim Bob Cooter loves to run. Last season, Colts QBs handed the ball off 47.6% of the time for the sixth-highest percentage in the NFL.
Taylor, conservative Cooter and Indy’s top-half offensive line (No. 5 run-blocking efficiency in 2024, per Pro Football Focus) are a fantasy match made in heaven.
Taylor wasn’t the most per touch efficient back. He finished with a surprisingly bland RB53 in yards created per touch (2.74), RB44 in yards created per attempt (2.68) and RB27 in missed tackles forced (36). But the volume can’t be overlooked. His 88.4% opportunity share set the position’s pace in 2024, and with little competition for touches entering this season, he’s seemingly destined for 20-plus grips per game.
Expect the Circle City Clydesdale to pull the beer cart week in and week out. Keep in mind: Taylor has the second-easiest projected strength of schedule for fantasy RBs. If he stays upright in 15 or more games, he should crush the number above. Saddle him up.
Team lean — Colts OVER 7.5 regular-season wins (-110, BetMGM)
Given the undetermined QB situation, optimism about the OVER cashing is somewhat far-fetched. But we live in a world where 47-year old Tom Brady was “chatting up” Sydney Sweeney. Anything is possible.
Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Downs and hotshot rookie tight end Tyler Warren make up a plus receiving unit. The upside is apparent. Head coach Shane Steichen fully realizes it.
If Jones or Richardson displays proficiency under center, the wins should rack. After all, Indy owns the third-easiest projected overall schedule and will trot out arguably a top-10 defense — the unit finished No. 14 in EPA per play D last season and has its core back.
ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the Ponies a 51% or greater win probability in nine games. His calculations are spot-on. With just average QB play, the Colts should guide backers to the winner’s circle. Mark this bettor down for 8-9 Ws.