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The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Atlanta Falcons.
Fantasy value — Darnell Mooney, WR (ADP: 131.7, WR56)
Travel to the dark side of the moon, and money is likely to be made. Unconvinced? Well, that’s goody-good bull----.
The often overlooked wide receiver grew branches on the route tree last season, standing out whether on designed screens, quick outs or his trademark go routes. In 16 games, his 64-992-5 line tucked just inside the WR3 class in 12-team 0.5 PPR formats, and he was rock steady under the hood, ranking top-20 in total air yards, yards per reception (15.5), explosive rating and expected points added, according to PlayerProfiler. Also, his No. 28 finish in total route wins grabbed gamers' attention.
Yes, in three games with Michael Penix Jr. at the controls, Mooney totaled an unexciting 13 targets for seven receptions, 119 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Still, his fourth-easiest projected fantasy WR schedule, excellent analytics and dirt-cheap price tag suggest a handsome profit is very possible.
If Penix takes the next step in his maturation, Mooney should occasionally fly high. He’s a terrific depth addition in semi-challenging leagues. Bank on a similar output as last year.
Prop pick — Bijan Robinson OVER 10.5 rushing touchdowns (+100, BetMGM)
Correlate. Synergize. And bring it all together. If this sportsbook donator is already on Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year honors, doubling down on his end-zone splashes at plus money is a wise recommendation.
Last season, Bijan collected the third-most red zone touches among all NFL running backs (66) and blasted his way to 14 rushing TDs. Whether operating as a rusher or receiver, the versatile weapon is bound to be heavily utilized again inside the 20-yard line.
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Atlanta’s top-10 run-blocking offensive line (No. 7 in run block efficiency in 2024, per Pro Football Focus), ground-heavy scheme (No. 9 run play percentage in ‘24), Robinson’s supreme efficiency (RB23 YAC/attempt, RB4 MTF in ‘24) and the Falcons’ No. 1 easiest fantasy RB strength of schedule suggest the former Texas Longhorns star is unlikely to regress. In other words, he’s worth every penny at his top-five overall fantasy ADP (3.3).
Bottom line: Robinson sizzles in Hotlanta this year.
Team lean — Falcons OVER 7.5 regular-season wins (-140, DraftKings)
Whether via the NFL Draft or free agency, defense was general manager Terry Fontenot’s primary focus this offseason. The unit remains peppered with question marks, but if it's even average, Atlanta winning the NFC South is entirely achievable. On BetMGM, the Falcons are an enticing +150 to make the playoffs.
According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, Raheem Morris’ team has the 10th-easiest projected strength of schedule. While Clay only gives the Dirty Birds a 50% or greater win probability in four games, they should nip at the heels of perceived division front-runner Tampa Bay throughout the season. Ten wins aren’t out of the question for Atlanta.