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Season-long player props are beginning to surface across sportsbooks. In an attempt to seek out values, Brad Evans will occasionally make the case on an attractive future — whether betting the OVER or UNDER — as the outside temps rise.
Today’s topic: Offensive Player of the Year.
The pick — Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1600, Caesars)
Every year before the NFL season, pigskin prognosticators stretch out their necks, make predictions backed by sound reasoning and wait for the results. Some purposely “forget” what was forecasted, while others stand by convictions no matter the outcome.
As someone who adheres to transparency, this wannabe soothsayer exemplifies the latter. Always tracking and displaying results, the Big Noise rides the highs and endures the lows. As constantly stated, “Fade or follow — that’s up to you!”
Last season after declaring Robinson was worth consideration as the No. 1 overall pick in 0.5 PPR drafts, a Twitter troll emerged from his hole. Some dude named Mike denounced the coveted fantasy running back, calling Robinson “overrated” and not worthy of being the top selection.
I wonder what happened to this guy. Has mysteriously fallen silent. 🤫 https://t.co/K1mf2QUGUZ
— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) December 15, 2024
No, the Falcons RB didn’t finish No. 1 overall, but his RB4 standing in half-point PPR formats suggested his late first round price tag in 12-team single-FLEX drafts turned a tidy profit. And in the fantasy playoffs, Robinson was a monster, averaging 127.3 total yards per game while scoring six total touchdowns in Weeks 15 through 18.
Overall, Bijan blazed a fiery trail in 17 games, amassing 1,887 combined yards, 61 receptions and 15 total touchdowns. He also finished top-10 in total yards created (1,392, RB1), yards after contact (920, RB5), missed tackles forced (70, RB4), red zone touches (66, RB3) and expected fantasy points per game (18.8, RB2).
[ NFL Gamer's Guide: Fantasy forecasts and futures bets for 2025 season ]
Yeah, kick rocks, Mike.
In Year 3, Bijan could pack an even bigger BOOM!
The statistical stud’s emergence over the 2024 schedule’s second half is a clear indication of what his usage will likely be under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. From Week 9 on, Bijan Robinson tallied 24.2 touches per game.
Behind an Atlanta offensive line that finished No. 1 in run blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus, and with Michael Penix’s lively arm set to start the entire 2025 season, the former Texas star could top 2,000 all-purpose yards, and that isn’t the liquid courage talking.
Also, don’t fret about Tyler Allgeier.
Yes, the RB2 still lurks, but he’ll likely only siphon the occasional series. After all, the incumbent is a complete three-down force with a well-defined, red-zone role who will likely earn upwards of 75% of the team’s opportunity share.
Primed to be the centerpiece of a very healthy Falcons offense and blessed with THE easiest projected fantasy RB strength of schedule, Bijan is bound to silence the haters.
At +1600 to win OPOY — an award won by either a running back or wide receiver for six straight years — the high-flying Falcon could have long-term investors jumping for joy.
Buy in on Bijan -- especially at No. 1 overall no matter the fantasy format.