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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Amari Cooper UNDER 47.5 receiving yards vs. Chiefs (-115, BetMGM)
In his return to the lineup, the Pooper Cooper is going to make a guest appearance. Yes, this wannabe soothsayer believes Kansas City will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten, but Cooper will play the smallest of parts in that projected toppling. In his two games with Buffalo, he’s gone over in one and under in the other. That small sample and his No. 30 ranking in route win percentage are far from discouraging measurements. The Chiefs’ No. 17 standing in pass EPA defense over the last five weeks echoes the sentiment. However, Cooper’s likely primary assignment, Trent McDuffie, is one of the stingiest cornerbacks in the league. This season, McDuffie has given up a 61.0% catch rate and the 51st-most yards of any DB. The Bills wide receiver may haul in a splashy catch, but presumably rusty coming off a wrist setback, he finishes south of 50 yards.
BetAlytics grade: B-
2. Cedric Tillman 60+ receiving yards at Saints (-105, DraftKings)
As detailed in this week’s WR Fantasy Flames, Tillman is opportunistically placed in a tremendous smash spot. In a contest with a REVENGE GAME feel for Jameis Winston, he and Jerry Jeudy should tear up a New Orleans secondary that’s ranked a middling No. 15 in pass EPA defense since Week 6. Most excitingly, the Cleveland wideout is slated to exchange glances mostly with Alontae Taylor, who is unquestionably the NFL’s most generous defensive back. No CB has surrendered more yards than Taylor, who’s also yielded 33 receptions on 42 targets (78.6%) and a 122.3 passer rating. Tillman, who’s lured 32 targets since Week 7, has raced past 60 receiving yards in three straight contests. Checking in at No. 22 in average yards of separation per target, he owns the spacing skills, QB trust and volume to easily achieve what’s needed in a primo matchup. Bank on the Brown.
BetAlytics grade: C+
3. Calvin Ridley OVER 4.5 receptions vs. Vikings (-115, BetMGM)
Riddle me this. Riddle me that. Betting on Ridley could leave your wallet fat. Once cut in droves by fantasy managers weeks ago, Tennessee’s WR1 has quickly regained value lost. A certifiable top-10 wide receiver the past three weeks, he totaled 32 targets and 20 receptions, topping 4.5 catches in each contest. He should continue to emit fire Sunday against Minnesota. Since Week 6, the Vikings are bottom-10 in dropback EPA defense, and overall, they have allowed the fourth-most receptions to WRs (132). Ten wideouts have reeled in five or more passes against them. Slated to square off most with CB Shaquil Griffin, a defensive back who’s given up a 113.2 passer rating on 90 coverage snaps, Ridley should rack the grabs. Throw in the strong negative game script possibility (which would escalate his target potential), and the Riddler's streak of five or more receptions extends to four.
BetAlytics grade: C+
4. SGP: Lions -6.5, Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown vs. Jaguars (+110, BetMGM)
Residents of Duvall County, please shield your eyes. When your squad has Mac Jones under center and is forced to square off against arguably the best team in the NFL — on the road, no less — a beatdown is bound to occur. Gibbs will be one of 10,000 reasons why. Admittedly, nine times out of 10, my choice would be #MandatoryMontgomery for anytime TD, but with his juice jacked, Gibbs is the wiser SGP pairing. The sophomore sensation has logged the 16th-most red-zone touches of any running back, totaling 3.15 YAC per attempt (RB19) and forcing 30 missed tackles (RB9), and he has scored in a very nice six of nine games. Jacksonville’s run defense is fair to middling, yielding 4.12 yards per carry, 142.1 total yards per game and a dozen TDs to RBs. In what’s likely to be a slobberknocker of epic proportions, Detroit covers the alt time and Gibbs splashes six.
BetAlytics grade: C+
5. Darnell Washington OVER 8.5 receiving yards vs. Ravens (-110, BetMGM)
Pulling a random wager from the keyster can sometimes leads to significant profitability. At 6-foot-7, Washington is someone who needs no ladder when placing a star on the Christmas tree. The Pittsburgh tight end is a mammoth human being with surprising soft hands and dexterity, and QB Russell Wilson is rather fond of him. With the Dangerwich under center, Washington has caught at least one pass in three straight contests, averaging 23.7 receiving yards per game. In fact, he’s cashed the OVER in four of his last six. Known more for his pancake blocking, the former Georgia star averages only 5.3 routes run and has run a route on just 17.8% of snaps played. However, given the enormous shortcomings of Baltimore’s pass defense (No. 30 in pass EPA defense) and struggles containing tight ends (6.3 catches and 68.0 yards allowed per game), the overlooked Steeler has single-play payday potential. Overall, a dozen TEs have tallied nine yards against John Harbaugh’s bunch. Let’s get weird.
BetAlytics grade: B-
Season record: 23-28, -3.78 units