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During the NFL season, I will constantly scour the sportsbooks to find market inefficiencies tied to various player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you.
Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 equals 1.15 units wagered.
1. Justin Herbert OVER 222.5 passing yards vs. Titans (-115, BetMGM)
Somewhat inconspicuously, Herbert has seriously dialed up his game. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston’s development have sparked the Chargers’ usually conservative passing game. Over the last four weeks, his lowest single-game passing output was 237 yards in Week 6 at Denver. Early season struggles continue to drag the overall secondary profile, but Herbert is No. 3 in deep-ball completion percentage and a respectable No. 11 in air yards per attempt among eligible passers. On the surface, Tennessee’s No. 13 standing in passing EPA defense and 172.0 passing yards per game allowed point to fading the Bolts’ quarterback. However, with the Titans on the wrong side of blowouts in several matchups, those numbers are a bit deceiving. As long as Sunday’s game is somewhat competitive, Herbert should join Josh Allen as the only QBs to throw for 223 or more yards against the AFC South rep.
BetAlytics grade: B+
2. Tyrone Tracy 100+ rushing/receiving yards vs. Panthers in Munich (+100, BetMGM)
Dust off your favorite pair of lederhosen, fill the stein full of Becks and prepare the breakfast party. In a game that kicks off in Munich at 9:30 a.m. ET, you’re going to need libations, sustenance and betting selections to remotely keep your attention captivated. It’s Giants-Panthers for the love of the Danube, a matchup not even the devil would watch in the darkest recesses of hell. However, laying action on Tracy’s combined rushing and receiving yards could reward backers with a heavenly result. This season, the Panthers, who rank No. 31 in pass and rush EPA D, have yielded 168.7 total yards per game and 5.1 yards per touch to RBs. In total, five rushers have reached the century mark in the combined categories. As for the converted college WR, Tracy has hit triple digits in total yardage three times in his last five games. With an attractive 3.01 YAC/attempt and 16.9% missed tackle rate, the New York RB is worth at least a couple of Euros.
3. D’Andre Swift OVER 15.5 receiving yards vs. Patriots (-120, BetMGM)
On last week’s miserable list, Swift’s receiving yards prop was the only featured bet that cashed. Yep, this -EV bettor lived down to expectations. Hey, that’s gamblin’ for ya. With pail in hand, this units chaser is hoping the well waters will be all so replenishing. Given Swift’s top-12 ranking in routes run (14.5 per game), yards per route run (1.93) and yards per reception (9.0), odds are strong he’ll provide the necessary hydration. The Bears running back has comfortably reached the over in seven of his last eight games. Adding to the positive trends, New England has surrendered 3.9 receptions and 29.6 receiving yards per game to RBs. Overall, eight pass-catching backs compiled at least 16 receiving yards. Swifties unite!
BetAlytics grade: B-
4. SGP: Aaron Jones anytime touchdown, Vikings ML at Jaguars (+114, DraftKings)
Raise a glass of Casa Noble to a man this dolt nicknamed Senor Sombrero. In a downright tasty matchup, Jones' prop should go down oh so smooth. Jacksonville is practically dust in the wind. Trevor Lawrence is injured, the defense stinks and somehow Doug Pederson is still employed. In what’s essentially a practice game for the Vikings, Jones should feast. The Jaguars check in at a laudable No. 11 in rush EPA defense, but they’ve allowed an exploitable 4.09 yards per carry and 12 total TDs to RBs. Minnesota’s chain mover, who is No. 8 in red-zone touches (28), should splash six for the fourth time this year. Tack on the Vikings to emerge victorious, and the juice enters plus territory. Salud!
BetAlytics grade: C+
5. James Conner 90+ rushing yards vs. Jets (+135, DraftKings)
The Terminator is self-aware and hell-bent on steamrolling the competition and protecting Sarah Connor no matter the cost. For some comical reason, there’s a subsection of the NFL fan population that truly believes the Jets have reversed course and are destined to reach the postseason. Yes, really. Arizona could squash any and all renewed optimism with a steady dose of Conner. The offensive centerpiece is No. 6 in YAC per attempt (3.64) and No. 1 in total missed tackles forced (47). On a very nice 69.9% opportunity share, he’s blasted his way to at least 90 rushing yards four times. Because of the Cardinals’ 13th-ranked run-block offensive line, they should consistently open wide holes for Conner to scoot through. New York is a lousy No. 26 in rush EPA D, giving up 4.19 yards per carry and 104.3 rushing yards per game to RBs. So far, four plowshares have topped 90 ground yards against them. Conner brings a Judgment Day.
BetAlytics grade: B-
Season record: 21-25, -2.58 units