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Virginia Tech (5-3) at Syracuse (5-2)
Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: Noon ET
TV: CW Network
Dirk Nowitzki would be jealous of how much I’m fading away from the narrative of this game.
With Syracuse coming off an abysmal 41-13 loss at Pittsburgh, it’s time to bet on the classic bounce-back situation. And it’s time for the Orange to shine at home.
The pick — Syracuse +4 (-110, BetMGM)
Syracuse looked bad last week. Quarterback Kyle McCord arguably had the worst game of his career, throwing no touchdowns and five interceptions, and the running game didn’t pick up the slack, as the Orange rushed for just six yards. They played their third consecutive game on the road, so maybe they suffered from travel fatigue.
I don’t think Syracuse is that bad of a football team. And now the Orange are back in the comfort of the JMA Wireless Dome, where they have a shot at an upset as a home underdog.
The offensive storylines for these teams couldn’t be more different.
The Hokies love to run the ball, ranking 28th in the nation in run play percentage (57.4%). The Orange do the opposite. With McCord, they love to throw the ball, passing on a whopping 64.4% of their snaps, the second-highest rate in the country.
With that in mind, the real story of this matchup is how it plays out defensively.
Syracuse doesn’t defend the pass all too well. But against the run? The Orange rank 28th in opponent rushing success rate.
Virginia Tech could run the ball a lot, not only to execute its normal offense but also to keep the ball out of McCord’s hands. If the Hokies do that, Syracuse’s run defense may stop them more often than not. And if by chance running back Bhayshul Tuten isn’t 100%, they won’t be able to do much passing-wise with a dropback success rate that ranks an abysmal 105th.
And it’s not like the Virginia Tech defense will stop the Orange passing game. The Hokies, who rank 98th in opponent passing yards per completion, go up against the toughest passing offense they’ve faced all year in a Syracuse attack that’s No. 9 in dropback success rate. Also, the last time Virginia Tech played a top-10 passing offense, it allowed Miami’s Cam Ward to throw for 343 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-34 loss.
McCord is looking to rebound after a five-interception game. There’s a good chance the Orange are ripe to pull off the upset at home.
Season record: 19-12, +6.44 units