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No. 21 Missouri (6-1) at No. 15 Alabama (5-2)
Date: Saturday, October 26
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
The two teams are facing plenty of uncertainty for two different reasons.
Missouri might have a less-than-100% healthy quarterback, while Alabama has no idea if its offense is capable of winning games. The Crimson Tide are now in the “tuck in your shirt and show up on time” phase of program panic, and that’s not ideal.
With all the craziness, I can only look in one direction for this game.
The pick — Missouri-Alabama UNDER 55.5 total points (-110, BetMGM)
I know a lot of Bama fans have been lamenting the team’s defense, but the numbers tell a different story. The Tide have actually been fairly good at stopping teams. They just haven’t had the firepower to counteract.
Alabama ranks 16th in the country in defensive success rate, and it excels at defending the pass, holding the top spot in opponent dropback success rate. The Crimson Tide limit teams on the ground effectively and rank in the top 20 in opponent early down EPA, which means they play good defense on first and second downs. This could be a problem for Missouri, which ranks a pedestrian 67th in early down EPA on offense.
On the flip side, Mizzou’s defense isn’t too shabby either.
The Tigers rank seventh in defensive success rate and 35th in opponent points per play. They should continue the trend of opponents giving Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe trouble, both through the air and on the ground.
There’s also concern that Missouri QB Brady Cook may not be 100%. In the middle of last weekend’s game against Auburn, he went to the hospital to have an MRI exam on his ankle, but he returned in the third quarter to lead two touchdown drives for a 21-17 victory.
If the passing game is restricted, the Tigers will likely use more running plays, but they could struggle against Alabama’s run defense. The Tide allows only 3.6 yards per carry and ranks in the top third of run defenses.
There are simply so many ways these teams can stop each other, and that’s not even mentioning the self-inflicted offensive plays they both suffer from. The lack of offensive explosion on both sides is also concerning.
With Mizzou and Bama having to rely heavily on their defenses, let’s get behind the idea that points will be at a premium in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
Season record: 16-12, +3.75 units