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Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.
Prop play — Chase Brown OVER 9.5 rushing attempts (-135, BetMGM)
The changing of the guard is well underway in the Queen City. With Brown ascending and Illinois football quite relevant at 5-1, this die-hard I-L-L fan is through the roof on what’s developed.
No pants required.
Brown (quad) and backfield compadre Zack Moss (ankle) practiced on a limited basis this week, but both Bengals running backs shouldn’t be considerably hampered in New Jersey. In what’s increasingly becoming a full-blown timeshare, a near 50-50 split is quite possible Sunday night.
On a per-touch basis, Brown is a bit of an efficiency sensation. On 41.1% of the opportunity share, the sophomore rusher ranks No. 3 in yards after contact per attempt (4.07) and has impressively forced a missed tackle on 19.5% of his carries. The Canadian import is also a respectable No. 22 in yards per touch (5.3).
The Giants aren’t exactly squashing the run. Shane Bowen’s unit is No. 18 in rush EPA defense, surrendering 4.99 yards per carry and 84.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. Given Brown’s electric wheels and terrific after-contact production, he’s worth a tail in a must-win matchup for Cincinnati.
The Bengals’ No. 27 standing in run-blocking efficiency, per Pro Football Focus, is a deterrent, but the opponent — currently No. 22 in run D grade at PFF — is an exploitable one. And most significantly, Brown has totaled rushing attempts of 15 and 12, respectively, in his last two games.
Get down with Brown.
Prop season record: 8-8 -0.50 units
SGP — Bengals ML, Ja’Marr Chase 60+ receiving yards, Wan’Dale Robinson 4+ receptions (+130, ESPN Bet)
Bengals ML. In a back-against-the-wall moment, bank on Cincinnati rising to the occasion. Slow starts are becoming the norm for Joe Burrow and friends. Last year, they stumbled out of the gate at 1-3 only to finish the season at 9-8. They’re desperate at 1-4, and that means their best football could be on the immediate horizon. Per EPA data, the Giants are light years ahead of their visitors (No. 16 to No. 30), but without Malik Nabers (concussion), Brian Daboll’s bunch simply doesn't possess the offensive firepower to exchange blows with the Bengals. For the second time this season, Cincy secures a road win.
Ja’Marr Chase 60+ receiving yards. Cue the Pointer Sisters classic. Or maybe Jessie Spano from “Saved by the Bell.” The projected matchup for Chase should have backers so excited. The ballyhooed wideout is expected to square off most with second-year DB Cor’Dale Flott, who checks in at a bland No. 51 in coverage grade, according to PFF. On 149 snaps, Flott has surrendered a 78.9 catch percentage and 121.7 passer rating to his assignments. It's true that only three wide receivers have eclipsed 60 yards against the Giants this season. However, given his defensive matchup and top standing in total YAC, Chase should reach the money-making mark for the fifth time in six games.
Wan’Dale Robinson 4+ receptions. Half-jokingly, sans Nabers, Robinson is destined to grab 15 catches for 25 yards. The epitome of “nickel-dimer,” Daniel Jones uses his short-field dirty work as an extension of the run. The Giants quarterback’s No. 90-plus standings in average depth of target (4.6) and yards per reception (7.2) provide indisputable proof. Because of Robinson’s quick-hitting routes, Jones will look in his direction and frequently deliver accurate passes. The wideout has averaged 9.4 targets per game and ranks a laudable No. 27 in catchable target rate. Most importantly, the PPR machine has snagged four or more passes in four of five games. Slated to dance most often with SCB Mike Hilton, who’s allowed a 64.3 catch percentage, Robinson is likely to tally what’s needed — and quickly.
SGP season record: 4-12, -6.70 units (we may never win again)