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No. 23 Indiana (5-0) at Northwestern (2-2)
Date: Saturday, October 5
Time: 3:30 pm ET
TV: Big Ten Network
It’s taken almost five games for me to shed my old bad habits of being an Indiana football fan.
Never believing the hype. Thinking the team is somehow in imminent collapse. Believing the good times will never last.
However, with new head coach Curt Cignetti, I’m finally starting to feel like Ted Lasso and Coach Beard — I believe.
Cignetti has not only installed a new Hoosiers offense, but he’s also rejuvenated the entire program with a no-nonsense attitude and the confidence of a strong Power Four team. So it’s no surprise that this week, I’m finally ready to complete my IU football fan transformation and go all-in on believing in this team.
The pick — Indiana team total over 27.5 (-110, DraftKings)
It’s no secret how good of an offense the Hoosiers have this year. Like Mario eating a mushroom, this team grows three sizes bigger when it has the ball. And the numbers show it.
Indiana ranks 11th in the nation in scoring (41.8 points per game) and 20th in yards per game (466.0), and quarterback Kurtis Rourke has thrown for 11 touchdowns (with just two interceptions) and completed 73.2% of his passes. It’s not a tall tale to say that IU has one of the best offenses in the country.
On Saturday, the Hoosiers take on Northwestern in its new temporary lakeside stadium. The Wildcats have had a so-so start to their season and look like the perfect victim for IU’s run-and-gun offense.
When Rourke drops back to pass, Indiana hums better than an Aston Martin V8 engine. Pro Football Focus ranks the offense No. 4 in the country, including No. 3 in dropback success rate. The Hoosiers are also top-20 in early downs EPA. In other words, IU moves the ball and moves it well.
Northwestern has had its defensive moments, but a look at some key stats reveals there are ways it can be exploited, specifically in pass defense. The Wildcats' opponent dropback success rate ranks a putrid 111th in the country, meaning teams have tons of success passing on them.
If Indiana continues to rely on Rourke’s passing ability, it shouldn’t face much resistance with this Northwestern defense.
With the Hoosiers’ success through the air and the Wildcats’ lack of success defending it, IU should have a clear runway to putting points on the board. And with Northwestern ranking a pedestrian 68th in time of possession per game, Indiana should have plenty of time with the ball to score.
The Hoosier train has become a high-speed ride, and I’m excited to finally have a ticket.
Season record: 10-9, +1.07 units