The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Indianapolis Colts.
Fantasy value — Michael Pittman, WR (ADP: 37.31, WR20)
Most of Shane Steichen’s guys are appropriately valued in early fantasy drafts. One could argue that some options are slightly overvalued (e.g. Anthony Richardson). Even with a top-40 overall pick price tag, Pittman doesn’t fall into that line of thinking.
The former USC Trojan is the definition of receiver front man. Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce and others are clearly backup band members. Being the alpha brings top cornerback challenges, but Indy’s target hog is up to the task.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
In 2023, Pittman finished top-15 in contested catch rate, route win percentage and total YAC. Given the pumped volume — he lured 156 targets last year — he should again reach triple figures in receptions.
Richardson’s rawness as a passer and the Colts’ seventh-hardest strength of schedule for fantasy WRs splashes cold water, but Pittman’s size, physicality and broad route tree should vault him in range of a final 105-1150-6 line.
Prop pick — Jonathan Taylor most rushing yards in the league (+700, FanDuel)
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Christian McCaffrey is the front-runner for the 2024 NFL rushing crown, with several challengers — Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry — presenting the stiffest competition. However, if the Colt avoids the glue factory this season, he’ll irrevocably have backers galloping into the winner’s circle.
The 2021 version of Taylor could resurface. That year, he set the league pace in rushing yards, rolling up 1,811 over 17 games. Though his 2023 campaign was curtailed due to ankle and thumb troubles, he still showed signs of effectiveness when in uniform. Over 10 games, he forced 29 missed tackles and finished RB13 in yards after contact per attempt (3.12).
Now at full strength — and with Zack Moss smashing tacklers for the Bengals — Taylor should return to 18-22 carries per game. The Colts were one of the most conservative offenses in the NFL last season, ranking No. 11 in run percentage (43.78). The workhorse will saddle up for 17 games and surpass 300 carries this year.
Anthony Richardson’s duality and Indy’s projected top-10 offensive line only inflame the argument. The Colts’ fourth-hardest strength of schedule for fantasy RBs is a deterrent, but the potential volume SPEAKS. Taylor’s full season floor is 1,300 rushing yards.
Team lean — Colts OVER 8.5 wins (+100, Caesars)
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Glancing at the schedule, Indianapolis’ first half is somewhat daunting. Unsurprisingly, ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the Ponies only a 50% or greater win probability to emerge victorious in four of their first 12 games. But with season-closing matchups against the Patriots (road), Broncos (road), Titans (home), Giants (road) and Jaguars (home), December and January could be tide-turning.
Take care of business against the meek and slay a couple of mighties, and the OVER hits. Overall, the Colts have the seventh-easiest projected strength of schedule.