The Open Championship — the last major of the golf season (and also known as the British Open) — tees off early Thursday morning at Royal Troon in Scotland. The world’s oldest golf tournament is played on a rotation of links-style courses every year in the United Kingdom. Links golf is played on coastal courses where there are hardly any trees lining the fairways and the wind and weather often make a big impact.
The last time The Open was played at Royal Troon was eight years ago when Henrik Stenson outdueled Phil Mickelson. Stenson won the tournament shooting 20-under-par with Mickelson just three strokes back, but there was a huge gap between the two and the rest of the field as the third-place score was 6-under.
Scottie Scheffler (+550) enters this week as the favorite. He is the best player in the world and has collected six victories since early March. However, with the variance at Royal Troon bringing in a lot of golfers in play to win, it’s easy to pass on Scheffler at those odds.
Rory McIlroy (+800) typically gets all the attention at the Open Championship because he was born in Northern Ireland and receives a lot of support from the locals. The focus is on McIlroy even more this week because he squandered a golden chance to break a 10-year major championship drought at the U.S. Open last month. His missed short putts on the 16th and 18th holes opened the door for Bryson DeChambeau, who took advantage and edged McIlroy by one shot.
I considered betting on McIlroy to win and no one else this week, but a handful of players down the board are undervalued. I’m opting to spread my money out on them.
Jon Rahm (+2800, ESPN BET)
For pretty much the entire 2023 golf calendar, there was a big three of Scheffler, McIlroy and Rahm. When all three played in a tournament, they topped the odds with a considerable gap between them and the next tier.
A lot has changed since then. Rahm is nowhere near Scheffler and McIlroy in the outright odds, but that presents an opportunity to buy low on a two-time major winner.
The biggest change in Rahm’s status from last year was his move to LIV Golf, which has kept him out of the minds of most golf bettors and fans. He made the cut in his Masters title defense in April but was never in contention, and he missed the cut at the PGA Championship in May. He then had to withdraw in the days leading up to last month’s U.S. Open because of a foot injury that he has since recovered from.
The 29-year-old Rahm hasn’t won on LIV but has finished in the top 10 in nine events, and this tumble on the odds board doesn’t feel justified because he was recently a dominant player. He has a strong history of playing in windy conditions and on hard golf courses, too. So this is a good, buy-low spot on the Spaniard at a number that would’ve never existed if he didn’t make the move to LIV.
Tyrrell Hatton (+2800, DraftKings and FanDuel)
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I’m going to bet on several LIV players because I believe they are underpriced. Hatton is another one.
The Englishman hasn’t had much success in majors, but he has four top-20 finishes at the Open, including his best result at Troon in 2016 when he was tied for fifth. The 32-year-old excels on links-style courses and doesn’t mind tough weather conditions.
Hatton has shown more life in majors this year after his move to LIV. He finished tied for ninth at the Masters and was in the mix at the U.S. Open before a final-round 77 sunk him down the leaderboard. The week after the U.S. Open, he won the LIV event in Nashville and took third at LIV Andalucia last week at a challenging course in Spain.
Viktor Hovland (+3500, Caesars)
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This is very much a boom-or-bust pick, but that’s the kind of player I’m looking for in outright golf betting as long as the price is right.
Hovland has had a bad season by his standards, but at the PGA Championship, he reminded fans of what he can do when he’s dialed in. The Norwegian finished third that week at Valhalla, and there was hope that he would be in store for a big summer.
That hasn’t gone as planned, especially after a missed cut in the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. He shot a terrible 78 in the first round, played very well on Friday with a 68 but fell short of making the weekend. Now, the price has drifted too much on Hovland after a pedestrian showing at last week’s Scottish Open.
The 26-year-old has played in three Open Championships and finished inside the top 13 of all three, including fourth place in 2022 when he was in contention until late on Sunday. Hovland is worth a shot this week at a fair number.
Brooks Koepka (+4000, BetMGM)
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When Koepka gets into this price range for a major, it’s almost always an auto bet. He’s won five in his career and has contended in many more. He hasn’t won an Open Championship but started his career on the European Tour, so he is very familiar with the type of golf that is needed to have success this week.
The 34-year-old does have four top-10 finishes at The Open in his career. His inability to contend at majors this year and the obscurity of playing on LIV create a really nice price on a proven winner.
Hideki Matsuyama (+5500, ESPN BET)
Matsuyama started 2024 strong, winning the Genesis Invitational in February. He then was a popular bet to win the Masters and finished 38th before missing some time with an injury. He came back for the next major at the PGA Championship, where he didn’t look fully healthy and finished 35th.
The 32-year-old showed some of his early-year form at the Memorial (eighth place) and the U.S. Open (sixth). He has the all-around game to compete at the Open Championship, and I think this is a very fair number on a consistent player when healthy.
Joaquin Niemann (+6000, FanDuel)
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My last pick is the fourth LIV selection. Niemann was one of my favorite players to bet on when he was on the PGA Tour, so I feel obligated to at least consider him in the majors he participates in.
The 25-year-old Chilean was invited by the Masters and PGA Championship after an Australian Open win at the end of 2023 and two LIV victories early in 2024. The triumph in Australia, a European Tour event, earned him a spot at Royal Troon, where he looks to make the most of the opportunity with his future status in majors uncertain.