Novak Djokovic’s 2024 Wimbledon has undergone multiple themes. It began with uncertainty from his knee surgery in June. Then it fell under controversy after his perceived disrespect from fans. Now, his tournament is about redemption, which is where Djokovic’s fortnight was destined to be.
A seven-time Wimbledon champion doesn’t need to prove anything at the All England Club. However, Sunday’s final against Carlos Alcaraz gives Djokovic the opportunity to avenge last year’s championship match defeat to the immensely talented Spaniard.
Djokovic’s surgically repaired right knee has held up well, as he has relied on experience and guile to reach his 10th Wimbledon final. (He also benefited from a quarterfinal walkover when Alex de Minaur withdrew with a hip injury.) The pursuit of a record 25th Grand Slam title should be enough motivation, but avenging the 2023 five-set final loss to Alcaraz will also fuel Djokovic’s competitive fire in what should be another Centre Court classic.
The 21-year-old Alcaraz is a -145 favorite at BetMGM and DraftKings, while the 37-year-old Djokovic is a +122 underdog at FanDuel. Djokovic holds a 3-2 head-to-head edge, having won the last two meetings on hard courts.
The pick — OVER 41.5 total games (-105, DraftKings)
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Alcaraz has youth and boundless energy on his side. Djokovic has the advantage of having experienced every challenge a major final can present.
Their tournament numbers are essentially mirror images. Both have capitalized on effective first serves (Alcaraz: 58 aces, 72% first-serve points won; Djokovic: 54 aces, 81% first-serve points won). Both have won around 70% of their return games (Alcaraz: 68%; Djokovic: 75%).
What will carry the match past the proposed game total is Alcaraz’s tendency to lose focus and drop sets. His fluctuating concentration came into play in his French Open final victory against Alexander Zverev in May, when he was cruising in the third set up 5-2 but slipped into a series of unforced errors to fall into a 2-1 sets deficit. Alcaraz has been susceptible to sudden bad patches at this year’s Wimbledon, losing at least one set in his last four matches with game totals of 51, 38, 38 and 42.
And then, of course, there is the Djokovic revenge factor. He’s waited a year to get even with Alcaraz, who won 1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 for his second career major championship. A close, intense match with one tiebreaker is all that is needed to achieve a 42nd game.
The Djoker may not have the last laugh, but he’ll surely have plenty to say Sunday.
Tennis record: 5-6, -1.78 units