The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Pittsburgh Steelers.
Fantasy value — Jaylen Warren, RB (ADP: 113.56, RB29)
Devout followers of this scribe’s work are very familiar with #MandatoryMontgomery. Though still committed to everything David Montgomery, this year #RequisiteWarren could become all the rage.
Najee Harris and Warren are once again pairing up in Pittsburgh’s backfield. The talented tag team is one of the best two-back duos in the NFL. Harris is a more short-yardage grinder, while Warren provides the big-play gas.
Side with the giddyup.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Warren’s underlying numbers from 2023 raised eyebrows. According to Pro Football Focus, he was No. 3 among all eligible rushers in YAC per attempt (3.68) and No. 5 in total missed tackles forced (56). He also finished top-seven in breakaway run rate (8.1%), yards per touch (5.5) and yards created per touch (4.65). On 43.1% of the opportunity share (12.4 touches per game), he was the definition of efficiency working behind a plus Steelers offensive line.
Sporting a cheaper draft-day ADP compared to his RB compadre, Warren should again turn a tidy profit. Yes, Harris, who is reportedly in the best shape of his life, can chuck full beer kegs over tall walls, but the electricity in Mike Tomlin’s backfield is sure to spark. And, no, I'm not overly concerned with Pittsburgh's 10th-hardest strength of schedule for fantasy RBs. Just imagine the running lanes if Justin Fields takes over at some point.
Last year in 0.5 PPR formats, Warren finished a modest RB32 in per-week fantasy scoring. Given the healthy environment, his ground-chewing pop and substantive workload, a final tally in the range of 1,000 combined yards, 4-6 touchdowns and 50+ receptions is nearly bankable. At a minimum, expect him to teeter on the RB2 line in 12-team leagues.
Prop pick — Russell Wilson UNDER 17.5 passing touchdowns (-125, DraftKings)
- DraftKings offer: Bet $5 and get $150 in Bonus Bets
Arguably the league’s biggest diva, Wilson is hoping to have a strong third act in Pittsburgh.
Giving credit where it's due, he posted better than advertised numbers in a disastrous situation last season in Denver. He finished top-10 in red-zone completion percentage, true completion percentage and pressured completion percentage. And with a top-15 catchable target rate and a significant 22.7 rushing yards per game, he was far from terrible as his QB14 finish in total fantasy points further indicates.
Coming off 26 passing TDs last fall, tossing 18 end-zone strikes seems like a smash-the-piggy-bank opportunity. However, despite his various faults, Fields is lurking. If the Steelers slump at some point, fans twirling Terrible Towels will demand the backup to start. With Pittsburgh’s absolutely brutal late-season slate in Weeks 11 through 18 — Ravens, at Browns, at Bengals, Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals — the prospects of a QB change are quite measurable.
Knowing the hook could come for Wilson in November, the UNDER is the sensible play.
Team lean — Steelers UNDER 8.5 wins (-125, Caesars)
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The daunting homestretch schedule cannot be overstated. ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the Steelers a 43% or lower win probability in all eight of their final regular season games. In fact, Clay forecasts a 50% or greater win probability in only five total contests.
Yes, Tomlin’s defense has the makeup of a top-10 unit, and there are some bright spots on offense. However, the offseason hype of this team being a viable contender in the AFC is far-fetched. Why? This year, Pittsburgh has the third-hardest projected schedule in the NFL. Intimidating.
The other major sportsbooks have the same UNDER number juiced from -150 to -160. At a discounted -125 at Caesars, the value is quite buyable.