The 2024 Copa America could end up being one giant Lionel Messi celebration. His Argentina side are the betting favorites to win their second-straight South American championship and third-consecutive major tournament (after winning the 2022 World Cup). He’s also the odds-on pick to be the Copa America’s top goal scorer.
Messi very well could raise another trophy for his country in what could be his final international competition, but he doesn’t necessarily need to do all the heavy lifting offensively. Argentina boasts plenty of goal-scoring talent to win Group A and allow manager Lionel Scaloni to conserve his 36-year-old captain’s energy for the knockout stage.
The sportsbooks’ numbers reflect the likelihood of Messi not being front and center of the Argentines’ attack. While Messi is the front-runner at +300 (BetMGM and FanDuel), teammates Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez are both in the top six for Golden Boot candidates. Alvarez has the fourth-best odds between +550 and +700, while Martinez is rated sixth between +800 and +850.
Now, Messi remains the safest bet to score the most goals in the tournament. But with the potential of the GOAT’s minutes being managed, there’s another South American forward worth considering.
The pick — Top goal scorer: Darwin Nunez (+500, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
Nunez’s club form frustrates even the most optimistic Liverpool supporter. Last season in the Premier League, he routinely found himself in dangerous attacking positions, amassing 16.3 expected goals, but he managed to score just 11 goals in 36 league games (22 starts).
He is a much different striker in an Uruguay shirt.
In World Cup qualifying, Nunez leads CONMEBOL with five goals in six games. In the Uruguayans’ last qualifier in November, he scored twice in a 3-0 victory against Bolivia, and he appears to have maintained his form in the build-up for the Copa America, recording a hat trick in a 4-0 friendly rout of Mexico on June 5.
In Uruguay’s tournament opener, Nunez will get another crack at Bolivia, who are second from the bottom in South America’s World Cup qualifying standings with a minus-10 goal differential. He also can add to his goal total against Panama — the biggest long shot to win the tournament (+15000 at BetMGM) — before facing the United States in the group-stage finale.
Nunez’s Golden Boot chances obviously depend on a long tourney run. If Uruguay win Group C, they will face a tough road in the knockout rounds, starting with a quarterfinal against the Group D runner-up — maybe Brazil, but probably Colombia. They then would likely face the Group D winner in the semifinals. After Argentina and Brazil, Uruguay has the third-best odds to reach the July 14 final at +250 (BetMGM and FanDuel).
If you’re an Argentina fan who believes in Nunez’s inviting goal prospects, there’s a perfect prop for you — tournament winner plus top scorer. Argentina and Nunez are listed at +1800 at BetMGM.